Conservation strategies for responding to climate change Dr. Lara J. Hansen Chief Scientist, WWF Climate Change Programme

Vulnerabilities “The Arctic is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and major physical, ecological, and economic impacts are expected to appear rapidly.” — IPCC WGII TAR, 2001 (c) WWF-Canon / Peter PROKOSCH(c) WWF-Canon / Jack Stein GROVE

Terrestrial Impacts 20th century data show a warming trend of as much as 5°C over extensive land areas. The area underlain by permafrost has been reduced and has warmed. Ecosystem models suggest that the tundra will decrease by as much as two-thirds of its present size. (c) WWF-Canon / Hartmut JUNGIUS Source: NASA

Marine Impacts “Miners have their canaries to warn of looming dangers, and climate change researchers have their arctic ice.” — R. Kerr, Science, Source: NASA

Why conservation needs to think about climate change? Source: IPCC Synthesis Report 2001

Predicated on four tenets: 1) Protect Adequate and Appropriate Space 2) Limit all non- climate stresses 3) Use active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies 4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

1) Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing world Malcolm et al. 2001

map REFUGIA - Searching for Cool Spots Frequency of warm-season thermal anomalies from

Gradients & Networks NETWORK of MPAs across heterogeneous habitats  migration potential ©WWF Area protected in each arctic biome: 27% - Polar desert & glaciers 16% - Lowland tundra 14% - Mountain tundra 10% - Middle boreal 5% - Northern boreal 2% - Marine

© WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND 2) Reduce non-climate stresses on natural systems Unsustainable Harvest Pollution, Extraction & Habitat Degradation Agriculture & Habitat Fragmentation InvasiveSpecies ©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER ©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON

(c) WWF-Canon / Mauri RAUTKARI Source: NASA Source: CAFF (c) WWF-Canon / Quentin BATES Habitats Under Threat Local Threats: Resource Exploitation Shipping Overfishing Global Threats: Toxic Pollution Ozone Depletion Climate Change

3) Employ active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies © WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht © WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND

Temp. Change Effects on Biodiversity 2 ºC Some species lost Possible management options exist 4 ºC Many species lost Some management options may exist (EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE, Low Likelihood of Success) 6 ºCDire From Parmesan, 2003 Limitations to Resilience Building

4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions For some systems resilience building options are scarce and mitigation is only approach!

Adaptation Options 1.Limit stresses 2.Protect habitat Photo: Georg Bangjord “Adaptation to climate change will occur in mainly through migration and changing mixes of species.” — IPCC WGII TAR, 2001

Recommendations Ecosystem-based management Protect adequate and appropriate space for movement Reduce all non-climate stresses across the land/seascape so there is less overall stress and fewer barrier to maximizing system responses, sustainable development Engagement on climate policy reduce the rate and extent of anthropogenic climate change use examples of change seen in Arctic ecosystems as an indicator of the need for action

Sustainable development