6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia COST-722 Background, working areas and plans Jacobs, W. (DWD) Nietosvaara, V (FMI) Bendix, J. (University Marburg) Bott, A. (University Bonn) Michaelides, S. Chr. (Cyp. Met. Serv) Cermak, J. (University Marburg)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Main objective §To develop advanced methods for very short- range forecasts of fog, visibility and low clouds, adapted to characteristic areas and to user requirements. §This includes development of preprocessed methods of input data the appropriate forecast models and methods adaptable application software for the production of forecasts

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia COST-722: 14 European members and Canada (not true to scale)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Budget / person power (whole Action) §COST (Travel, per diem, publications) ≈ 300,000 € §Institutes (Person power) §average: 30 working colleagues §average person power (≈ 20% in relation to COST) §2 month (i.e., 40 working days)x8 hours = 320 hours per year §duration of Action: 5.5 years è320x5.5x30 = §costs for one hour 90€ (Germany) è52800x90€ ≈ 4,800,000 € è300,000€ / 4,800,000€ = about 6%  Not considered: Technical equipments (e.g., computer, data)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Phase I (Inventory) §Inventory phase has been completed in October Two inventory phase WG’s have finished their work. Existing forecast methods” (Chair: Herbert Gmoser, Austria) Requirements from the forecasters and from the customers” (Chair: Silas Chr. Michaelides, Cyprus) §Inventory phase publication:

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Phase II – IV (October 2003-May 2007)  3 WG’s established WG1 (Jörg Bendix, Germany): ”Initial data” WG2 (Andreas Bott, Germany): ”Models” WG3 (Silas Chr. Michaelides, Cyprus): ”Statistical methods”  II: Research and development Deep research regardless running time etc  III:Development and application Finalisation of research, scope more upon application (e.g., running time, relevant input data for methods)  IV:Dissemination exchange of modules with documentation issuing the final report

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Meetings  10 MCMs and meetings of particular WGs  10 STSMs  6 expert meetings  5 Workshops

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Dissemination of results §Proceedings of Workshop (Larnaca) as book, Langen (DWD- BTZ) in preparation for printing §Poster presentation about COST-722 at ICCP conference, Bologna, and ICCED in Nice (2004, A. Bott and A. Gadian) §Representation of COST-722 during the 3rd fog-conference in Cape Town (J. Bendix) §Working document about ”Validation of the distribution of probabilities” (H. Petithomme) §Invited talk at WSN05-conference in Toulouse (S. Michaelides, Cyprus) §Special issues §I. Gultepe (Canada): PAGEOPH (Pure and Applied Geophysics) §Th. Bergot (France): Model intercomparision of COST-722 §Final seminar: EMS/ECAC-AW02 §All activities, results etc:

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Connections to other fora §COST §COST-719 (GIS) §COST-720 (field measurement campaign at Payerne) §COST-723 (combination of satellite data and ground measurements) §Material for training §EUMETCAL, EUMeTrain §Outside Europe §NCAR (USA), BoM (Australia), WMO (Nowcasting-group) §FRAM (Fog Remote Sensing and Modelling, Toronto, Lunenburg / Canada)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG1: "Initial data" – Material / Tools §Data §aircrafts §laboratories §remote sensing data §observations §Methods for §deriving of relevant input data §for investigation of data (  e.g., cloud microphysics) §verification of satellite data / products (e.g., cloud types) §fog climatology

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG1: "Initial data" – Goals  Improved physical understanding of the phenomena "fog, visibility, low clouds"  Suggestion of new parameterisations  Development / improvement of fog climatology  Derivation and evaluation of fog properties from remote sensing  Investigation of potential and short commings of different measurement techniques  Recommendations for measurement equipment (e.g., airports)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG2: "Models" – Material / Tools §1-D / 3-D-models from different institutes §site specific and ensemble forecast (  probabilities) §Highly sophisticated data as input and for verification (co-operation with WG1) §Common verification procedure

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG2: "Models" – Goals  Improvement of model physcis  Specifying of relevant input parameter (  measurement equipment)  Parameterisations of which parameters are crucial for the forecasts' quality? (e.g., soil parameters, vertical velocity)  Derivation of deterministic and probability forecasts (e.g., EPS)  Model-intercomparision  potential and shortcommings of different models during different weather situations  better understanding of physical processes (co- operation with WG1)

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG3: ”Statistical methods” – Material / Tools §Decision trees, conceptual models, fog indices §Methodolgy for selection of relevant predictors §Neural Network §Fuzzy logic (e.g., classifying weather situations likely to fog also in relation to fog climatology) §Common verification procedure

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia WG3: ”Statistical methods” – Goals §Improving of forecasting methods §Preparation of probability forecasts §Relevant input parameters yielding hints for measurement equipments §Transfer of methods developed for one location to another

6th meeting of the EMS / 6th ECAC, AW02, Lubljana, Slovenia Future plans §May 2007 (end of COST-722)  Final report  Dissemination of methods inclusive documentation  Follow-up-Action for COST-722?  Cold fog and sea fog