GEC and RWS: Bangladesh INFORMATION NEED &RESEARCH M. Anwar Iqbal Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council.

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Presentation transcript:

GEC and RWS: Bangladesh INFORMATION NEED &RESEARCH M. Anwar Iqbal Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council

BANGLADESH  Total Area: mha  Population : 126m (2000), 190 (2030), 218 (2050)  Flat Topography (30% <1m, 50% 10-12m)  Coastal Zone: sq. km  Coast line: 710 km  Major cereal: Rice + wheat  Affected Population by GEC: million  GHG emission from RWS: 790 Gj of CH 4 /16590 Gg of CO 2

GEC and Bangladesh by 2030

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BANGLADESH Source: World Bank Report on Bangladesh Climate Change, April 2000.

BANGLADESH: AREA BY LAND TYPE AND INUNDATION

CEREAL PRODUCTION AND INTENSITY-2001

RICE AREA BY CROP SEASON

Area, Production and Yield of Rice: Bangladesh

Area, Production and Yield of Wheat : Bangladesh

Projected demand of various food items (in million tons) for different income growth rate scenarios Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Strategic Plan for Agricultural Research, 1995

Rice-Wheat Systems Coverage: Bangladesh

Key Determinants Influencing RWS  land types  Drainage  Rainfall/Soil Moisture  Temperature  Irrigation  Socio-Economics

Change in area under different drought classes due to climate change scenario in dry winter and pre-monsoon (Area in sq. km) Note: Figures within parentheses indicate % increase (+) or decrease (-) in area over existing. CCS-1 is 2°C and CCS-2 is 4°C rise in temperature

ISSUES OF RWS: Bangladesh

Percentage reduction in production of major crops from the existing level under two climate change scenarios over three levels of adaptation practices Note: HA is High Adaptation: Improved technology and its wide adaptation MA is Moderate Adaptation: Farmers will be responsive and will adjust with the change LA is Low Adaptation: Business as usual.

INFO. NEED FOR RWS POLICY PLANNING

RESEARCH DIRECTION