1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12,

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1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, significant rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular central and south central India, northeastern India and bordering nearby China region. Even though India (except the south) receives relatively less rainfall outside of JJAS summer monsoon season, India Met. Dept, reports that since October 1 st, all India rainfall deficit is at -48%. Elsewhere no significant anomalies are noted except over southeast Australia with slight positive anomalies.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by sporadic positive anomaly centers over Philippines, parts of Malaysia, maritime Indonesia and strong positive anomalies over northern and southeastern Australia.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, normal to below normal rainfall fell over the entire region, except for slightly above normal rainfall over eastern Australia.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation Northern Hemisphere Hurricane/Typhoon seasons over the various ocean basins have either come to an end or are winding down. Tropical depression twenty six in the far western Pacific is active and is heading towards Vietnam coast in the past week. Elsewhere convective associated with some troughing and cyclonic activity is noted in the Indian Ocean sector south of the equator.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, significant rainfall deficit is seen over peninsular central and south central India, northeastern India and bordering nearby China region. Even though India (except the south) receives relatively less rainfall outside of JJAS summer monsoon season, India Met. Dept, reports that since October 1 st, all India rainfall deficit is at -48%. Elsewhere no significant anomalies are noted except over southeast Australia with slight positive anomalies. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is marked by sporadic positive anomaly centers over Philippines, parts of Malaysia, maritime Indonesia and strong positive anomalies over northern and southeastern Australia. This past week, normal to below normal rainfall fell over the entire region, except for slightly above normal rainfall over eastern Australia. Northern Hemisphere Hurricane/Typhoon seasons over the various ocean basins have either come to an end or are winding down. Tropical depression twenty six in the far western Pacific is active and is heading towards Vietnam coast in the past week. Elsewhere convective associated with some troughing and cyclonic activity is noted in the Indian Ocean sector south of the equator. The NCEP GFS model is predicting slightly above normal rainfall over parts of Australia in the upcoming weeks and near normal rainfall elsewhere.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology