Matthew P. Hill and John S. Terblanche

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Presentation transcript:

Matthew P. Hill and John S. Terblanche Do niche shifts explain the recent range expansion and invasion of Bactrocera invadens into South Africa? ©Kaja Raghunath Matthew P. Hill and John S. Terblanche @InsectEcology

Niche Shifts Ecological Niche Models Broennimann et al. (2007) Ecol. Letters Fitzpatrick et al. (2006) Global Ecol. Biogeog. Ecological Niche Models

Niche Shifts ISSUES Rapidly changing realised niche Non-equilibrium with environment Modelling caveats Background selection Multicolinearity Transferability Taxonomic identification

Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) Over 500 species 75 in Bactrocera dorsalis complex Bactrocera dorsalis s.s Asia Significant quarantine pests Disrupt free and fair trade of fruit and vegetables © USDA

Bactrocera invadens 2003 detected in Kenya Likely origin Sri Lanka Polyphagous (mango, banana, citrus, stone) Spread rapidly throughout Africa © IITA

Distribution (De Meyer et al. 2010) 2003 first detection Native Range

Distribution 2012

2013 – South Africa Recent interception

Range expansion hypotheses Niche shift i.e. physiological, host plants, resistance adaptation Propagule pressure Filling ‘realised’ or ‘potential’ niche i.e. non-equilibrium distribution © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Or.. Conspecific invaders? © IAEA.org © IAEA.org B. invadens B. dorsalis Conspecific invaders?

Khamis et al. 2012 COI data supported

Tan et al. 2011 Phenylpropanoid volatiles

Hypotheses Conspecific species (B. invadens & B. dorsalis) Combined data better explain understand range expansion Considering as single species will give better predictions of global invasion potential © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Methods Four Bactrocera species Climate zones Niche exploration tools Ecological Niche Models © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Bactrocera distributions

GEnS 38 B. dorsalis 31 B. invadens 6 B. phillipiensis 8 B. papayae Metzger et al. 2013 Glob. Ecol. Biogeog.

Predictor Variables 2 sets 1. “Expert” 8 variables describing temperature and precipitation 2. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis Best subset of 35 variables Ranked on Marginality © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Principle Components Analysis ENFA-derived Expert

Principle Components Analysis ENFA-derived Expert

Ecological Niche Models MaxEnt (presence-background) Backgrounds * Predictor variable sets * model fitting complexity (β) AICc and AUCTEST to find ‘best’ models Projections Reciprocal Distribution Models © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

B. dorsalis B. invadens

Do ENMs support a single species? High overlap in E-space and G-space B. dorsalis able to project to B. invadens B. invadens not able to project to northern parts of B. dorsalis range Still undergoing range expansion © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Range Expansion

Range Expansion B. dorsalis better predicts recent invasion through southern Africa Niche shift? Expanding to fill the niche of a single global invader © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Global Invasion Potential

ENMs drive recommendations B. invadens and B. dorsalis to be considered a single species “functionally” Risk assessment and global trade management of Bactrocera dorsalis complex reviewed © USDA © IAEA.org © IITA

Thank you Matthew Addison Mark Shutze Mark De Meyer Andrea Stephens © IAEA.org