Earthquake Statistics Gutenberg-Richter relation

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Presentation transcript:

Earthquake Statistics Gutenberg-Richter relation Frequency-Magnitude relation b is an important parameter that varies in time and space ranging around 1 a accounts for the background seismicity rate

Frequency-magnitude relation from seismic moment

Aftershocks Aftershock decay rate follows the OMORI law K is the productivity p is close to 1 c account for magnitude completness

2017/4/26 3 Omori (1894) 1891 Nobi Earthquake of M8.1

ｔ : Ｋ，ｃ，ｐ : The Omori-Utsu formula for aftershock decay rate 2017/4/26 4 Utsu (1961) The Omori-Utsu formula for aftershock decay rate ｔ : Elapsed time from the mainshock Ｋ，ｃ，ｐ : constant parameters

Aftershocks occur on faults close to failure. Dieterich ‘94 model Aftershocks occur on faults close to failure. 100 100 80 80 60 60 sec-1x10-7 40 40 20 20 rate (events/time) close to failure far from failure perturbed seismicity background seismicity time

Earthquake Probability

1992 Landers Earthquake INGV r(x,y) m(x,y) reference background

‘Permanent’ Probability Single Fault : probability of failure after a stress step t0 clock-advance ‘Permanent’ Probability P(telapsed< t <telapsed+Dt) = = ∫ f(t) dt probability density telapsed+Dt telapsed time telapsed telapsed+Dt previous earthquake Clock-advances shorten the mean recurrence time, increasing the probability.