Physical Feedbacks Mike Steele Polar Science Center University of Washington Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin Co-Chairs:

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

FEEDBACK PARAMETERS Let T s = global mean surface air temperature R= net flux of heat into the climate system ΔR f = change in R due to some change in.

Advertisements

1 Dynamical Polar Warming Amplification and a New Climate Feedback Analysis Framework Ming Cai Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306

Climate Change: Science and Modeling John Paul Gonzales Project GUTS Teacher PD 6 January 2011.

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 8) Climate Models Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 8 - Climate Models.

Allison Parker Remote Sensing of the Oceans and Atmosphere.

Collaborative Research on Sunlight and the Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System (AIOS) Hajo Eicken Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks Ron Lindsay Univ. of Washington.

Water Vapor and Cloud Feedbacks Dennis L. Hartmann in collaboration with Mark Zelinka Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington PCC Summer.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Global Warming and Climate Sensitivity Professor Dennis L. Hartmann Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Seattle, Washington.

April 2013 Climate Change Projections for African Urban Areas EGU General Assembly Ingo Simonis, Francois Engelbrecht, Edoardo Bucchignani, Paola.

"Future climate impacts of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and long-lived greenhouse gases" Chen, W; Liao, H; Seinfeld,

Climate Forcing and Physical Climate Responses Theory of Climate Climate Change (continued)

Clouds and Climate: Cloud Response to Climate Change ENVI3410 : Lecture 11 Ken Carslaw Lecture 5 of a series of 5 on clouds and climate Properties and.

The role of spatial and temporal variability of Pan-arctic river discharge and surface hydrologic processes on climate Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department.

METR112-Climate Modeling Basic concepts of climate Modeling Components and parameterization in the model sensitivity of the model.

Thermohaline Circulation

Determining the Local Implications of Global Warming Clifford Mass University of Washington.

Fresh Water Budget of the Arctic and Atmospheric Mode of Variability NSF -- Fresh Water Initiative Bruno Tremblay Robert Newton Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.

Ocean and Climate An Introduction Program in Climate Change Summer Institute Friday Harbor Labs September 2008 Dennis L. Hartmann Atmospheric Sciences.

Anthropogenic Climate Change The Greenhouse Effect that warms the surface of the Earth occurs because of a few minor constituents of the atmosphere.

4. Models of the climate system. Earth’s Climate System Sun IceOceanLand Sub-surface Earth Atmosphere Climate model components.

How can regional coupled arctic modeling efforts best interact with the global climate modeling community? Marika Holland, NCAR Cecilia Bitz, U. Washington.

US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.

Whither Arctic Sea Ice? Walter N. Meier 1, Julienne Stroeve 1, Elizabeth Youngman 2, LuAnn Dahlman 3, and Tamara S. Ledley 3 1 National Snow and Ice Data.

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Authors: Wieslaw Maslowski, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Matthew Higgins, and Andrew Roberts Brian Rosa – Atmospheric Sciences.

Processes responsible for polar amplification of climate change Peter L. LangenCentre for Ice and Climate Niels Bohr InstituteUniversity of Copenhagen.

Climate Change: From Global Predictions to Local Action Mathematical Sciences Research Institute April

Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Arctic Climate Change Gavin Schmidt NASA GISS and Columbia University Jim Hansen, Drew Shindell, David Rind, Ron Miller.

The Greenhouse Effect. What controls climate? Energy from the Sun – Radiation! Consider the 4 inner planets of the solar system: SUN 342 W m W.

Collaborative Research: A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Mark C. Serreze, Andrew Barrett, Andrew Slater CIRES/NSIDC, University of Colorado,

Modern Climate Change Darryn Waugh OES Summer Course, July 2015.

Future Climate Projections. Lewis Richardson ( ) In the 1920s, he proposed solving the weather prediction equations using numerical methods. Worked.

5. Temperature Change due to the CO 2 Forcing Alone Spatial variability is due to spatial variations of temperature, water vapor, and cloud properties.

Arctic Cloud Biases in CCSM3 Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin.

A data-model comparison study of the Arctic Ocean's response to atmospheric mode of variability Bruno Tremblay Robert Newton Peter Schlosser Lamont Doherty.

The Importance of Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Advection in Arctic Climate Purpose To determine the importance of large-scale horizontal fluxes of heat.

The Atmosphere: Part 8: Climate Change: Sensitivity and Feedbacks Composition / Structure Radiative transfer Vertical and latitudinal heat transport Atmospheric.

Antarctic Climate Response to Ozone Depletion in a Fine Resolution Ocean Climate Mode by Cecilia Bitz 1 and Lorenzo Polvani 2 1 Atmospheric Sciences, University.

TOPIC III THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT. SOLAR IRRADIANCE SPECTRA 1  m = 1000 nm = m Note: 1 W = 1 J s -1.

Climate Model Simulations of Extreme Cold-Air Outbreaks (CAOs) Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin-Madison John Walsh International.

Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) Review 09 – 11 March 2010 Image: MODIS Land Group, NASA GSFC March 2000 The Influences of Changes.

Clouds: The Wild Card Bruno Tremblay McGill University

Robert Wood, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington The importance of precipitation in marine boundary layer cloud.

Modelling the climate system and climate change PRECIS Workshop Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29 th June – 3 rd July 2015.

Aerosols and climate - a crash course Marianne T. Lund CICERO Nove Mesto 17/9-15.

The Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback in a Warming Climate: Albedos from Today and Reflections on Tomorrow Don Perovich 1 and Tom Grenfell 2 1 Cold Regions Research.

Climatic implications of changes in O 3 Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University David Rind Goddard Institute for Space Studies How well.

Climate Variability and Extremes: Is Global Warming Responsible? Chip Konrad Associate Professor Department of Geography, UNC – Chapel Hill Director of.

The Changing Arctic: Recent Events & Global Implications Martin O. Jeffries National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Division of Arctic Sciences.

The role of clouds in the continuing decline of the Arctic sea ice Irina Gorodetskaya, Bruno Tremblay and B. Liepert AWI, Potsdam, 29 January 2008 Thanks.

Climate Model Tests of the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin Bill Ruddiman (U. Virginia),

Anthropogenic Causes: Land Use & Land Cover Current Weather Changes in Surface Albedo and Land Cover Radiative Forcing of Land Cover Changes Begin Climate.

PAPERSPECIFICS OF STUDYFINDINGS Kohler, 1936 (“The nucleus in and the growth of hygroscopic droplets”) Evaporate 2kg of hoar-frost and determined Cl content;

Global Warming Sceptics Bruno Tremblay McGill University

Sea Ice, Solar Radiation, and SH High-latitude Climate Sensitivity Alex Hall UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences SOWG meeting January 13-14,

What Controls Planetary Albedo and its Interannual Variability over the Cryosphere? Xin Qu and Alex Hall Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,

Atmospheric Circulation Response to Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss Clara Deser, Michael Alexander and Robert Tomas.

HOW GLOBAL WARMING HAS AFFECTED GLACIERS By: Tunyasiri & Kankanit P.3.

The Solar Radiation Budget, and High-latitude Climate Sensitivity Alex Hall UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of Arizona October.

Variability of Arctic Cloudiness from Satellite and Surface Data Sets University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory Polar Science Center Axel J.

Climate Change – is it really happening? Kathy Maskell Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading.

Understanding and constraining snow albedo feedback Alex Hall and Xin Qu UCLA Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 2nd International Conference.

Natural Causes of Climate Change

Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the CCSM2 Control Simulation

Anthropogenic Causes: Land Use & Land Cover

Modeling the Atmos.-Ocean System

Arctic Clouds and Climate Change

ATM OCN Fall 2000 LECTURE 8 ATMOSPHERIC ENERGETICS: RADIATION & ENERGY BUDGETS A. INTRODUCTION: What maintains life? How does Planet Earth maintain.

Quantifying the uncertainties of reanalyzed Arctic cloud-radiation properties using satellite data (Dong) MODIS MERRA MERRA annual mean CF is 9% higher.

Climatic implications of changes in O3

Presentation transcript:

Physical Feedbacks Mike Steele Polar Science Center University of Washington Steve Vavrus Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin Co-Chairs:

Content Posters Oral Presentations (2 hours) Discussion Section

Major Themes Thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks Thermodynamic and dynamic feedbacks (ice-ocean, ice-atmosphere, snow-atmosphere) (ice-ocean, ice-atmosphere, snow-atmosphere) Internally and externally forced feedbacks Internally and externally forced feedbacks (snow and ice ---> surface albedo) (snow and ice ---> surface albedo) Cloud feedbacks Cloud feedbacks

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Key Questions Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? Which feedbacks have already affected recent Arctic changes? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? What is the relative importance of various feedbacks? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? How do feedbacks operate in combination with one another? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? What is the proper way to evaluate (quantify) feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? Importance of local feedbacks vs. remotely forced feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks? What are greatest uncertainties in modeling Arctic feedbacks?

Oral Presentations 1:40 The Influence of Cloud Feedbacks on Arctic Climate Change (Steve Vavrus) [10 minutes] 1:50 Atmospheric Heat Transport as a Feedback on the Arctic Climate (Cecilia Bitz, Steve Vavrus) 2:10 The Role of Surface Albedo Feedback in Climate (Alex Hall) 2:30 The Ice-Albedo Feedback in a Changing Climate: Albedos from Today and Reflections on Tomorrow (Don Perovich) 2:50 The Ice/Ocean Interface During Summer: Implications for Ice- Albedo Feedback (Miles McPhee) 3:10 A Data-Model Comparison Study of the Arctic Ocean's Response to Annular Atmospheric Modes (Bruno Tremblay, Robert Newton, Peter Schlosser)

Model and Simulations GENESIS2 Atmosphere/Mixed-Layer Ocean GCM T31 Horizontal Resolution, 18 Levels 2CO2: Standard 2 x CO 2 simulation with predicted cloud changes 2CO2F: 2 x CO 2 simulation with fixed, 3-D cloud cover globally 2CO2FHIGH: 2 x CO 2 with fixed clouds in high latitudes only 2CO2FLOW: 2 x CO 2 with fixed clouds in low latitudes only Unchanged:Cloud albedo, particle size, optical depth, LWP Changed: Cloud phase and emissivity (slightly)

Change in Mean Annual Cloud Cover under 2 x CO 2

Impact of Cloud Changes on Greenhouse Warming

Change in T.O. A. Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF)

Effect of Regional and Global Cloud Changes on Arctic Climate

+2.6 W m W m W m W m -2 Change in MSE Flux

Conclusions More high-latitude clouds and less low-latitude cloudiness cause simulated cloud changes to act as a positive feedback under 2xCO 2 Cloud cover changes account for 1/3 of global warming and over 40% of Arctic warming Remote impact of low-latitude cloud changes ≈ Local impact of high-latitude cloud changes, due to importance of meridional atmospheric heat transport