1 Eduardo Levy Yeyati UTDT Business School & IDB Sovereign Debt in LAC.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Eduardo Levy Yeyati UTDT Business School & IDB Sovereign Debt in LAC

2 Three degrees of vulnerability  DSA: Size (stock & cost) Debt ratios  Volatility (indexation) Currency (dollars, pesos & CPI)  Liquidity (effective duration) Location (domestic & external) Creditor (private & official)

3 Debt ratios are growing... Sample: Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay.

4...with a different composition

5 Borrowing at home...

6...mostly in local currency... Sample: Argentina, Brazil, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Uruguay, Venezuela

7 Private Pension Funds’ Holdings of Market Instrument Debt, in percent...with the help of institutional investors

8 External debt...

9...is still predominantly official...

10...with IFIs gaining in importance...

11...as concessional bilateral lending makes a bow

12 Within private sources...

13...bonded debt is replacing bank debt...

14...only in EMs

15 Similarly, for domestic debt...

16...

17 Debt ratios looks different in net terms

18 How do these data compare with availables sources?

19 Main divergence: EMs

20 Three degrees of vulnerability  Size  Debt ratios are growing (cost?)  Volatility  Slow de-dollarization Based on domestic demand (with the help of CPI- indexacion & pension funds)  Liquidity  Domestic bias Is domestic debt more flexible? Still too much official debt?

21 Eduardo Levy Yeyati UTDT Business School & IDB Sovereign Debt in LAC