Who’s Risk Is It? Risk-Based Decision-Making in Indian Country Ms. Marilyn Null Deputy for Community-Based Programs U.S. Air Force

Risk What is risk? -- The chance of injury, damage or loss What is risk? -- The chance of injury, damage or loss

Risk What is environmental risk? -- The chance of injury, damage, or loss (disease or death)_resulting from exposure to a potential environmental hazard What is environmental risk? -- The chance of injury, damage, or loss (disease or death)_resulting from exposure to a potential environmental hazard

Risk How is environmental risk determined? -- Tool = Risk Assessment How is environmental risk determined? -- Tool = Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Does: Determine potential for a site to pose a health threat - present/future Indicate which chemicals are most hazardous at the site Determine how people could come into contact with hazardous chemicals Identify problems at a site that need to be addressed Determine cleanup level Does: Determine potential for a site to pose a health threat - present/future Indicate which chemicals are most hazardous at the site Determine how people could come into contact with hazardous chemicals Identify problems at a site that need to be addressed Determine cleanup level

Risk Assessment Does Not: Determine whether any detectable health effects have occurred or will occur because of the site Identify individuals who are most likely to have health problems because of the site Identify technologies for addressing contamination Does Not: Determine whether any detectable health effects have occurred or will occur because of the site Identify individuals who are most likely to have health problems because of the site Identify technologies for addressing contamination

Risk Assessment Key Components: Hazard identification (contaminants of concern) Exposure assessment (pathways) Toxicity assessment (dose-response) Risk characterization (what is potential risk?) Key Components: Hazard identification (contaminants of concern) Exposure assessment (pathways) Toxicity assessment (dose-response) Risk characterization (what is potential risk?)

Hazard Identification What chemicals are present at the site? Records Search Sampling Results What chemicals are present at the site? Records Search Sampling Results

Exposure Assessment How can chemicals reach humans? Inhalation Ingestion Dermal absorption How can chemicals reach humans? Inhalation Ingestion Dermal absorption

Toxicity Assessment ?

Dose = amount taken in; depends on Exposure Pathway Environmental Concentration

Toxicity Assessment Dose assumptions: Average Child:15 kg = lbs Average Adult:70 kg = lbs Average Life Span:70 years Drink 2 liters of water per day Breathe 26 cubic yards of air per day Intake 100 mg/day soil (children 2X) Average Child:15 kg = lbs Average Adult:70 kg = lbs Average Life Span:70 years Drink 2 liters of water per day Breathe 26 cubic yards of air per day Intake 100 mg/day soil (children 2X)

Risk Characterization Hazard Identification Exposure Assessment Toxicity Assessment Risk Characterization

Risk Range 1 x x 1 x OR to OR Risk Range 1 x x 1 x OR to OR

Risk Characterization The potential for one additional cancer (over the 25% to 33% average cancer rate, regardless of exposure) in a population of ten thousand to one million, being exposed to the current level of contamination, through a given pathway, over a 70-year lifetime! The potential for one additional cancer (over the 25% to 33% average cancer rate, regardless of exposure) in a population of ten thousand to one million, being exposed to the current level of contamination, through a given pathway, over a 70-year lifetime!

Additional Considerations Effects of Multiple Contaminants Synergistic Effects R 1 + R 2 + R 3 = Risk Antagonistic Effects R 1 + R 2 = 0 Effects of Multiple Contaminants Synergistic Effects R 1 + R 2 + R 3 = Risk Antagonistic Effects R 1 + R 2 = 0

Elements of Risk Air Water Soil Contaminant Receptor Pathway

Elements of Risk Air Water Soil Contaminant Receptor Pathway

Risk Communication A Broader Definition of Risk Technical Risk = Risk+Non-Technical AssessmentPublic Concerns OR Risk= Hazard+Perception Technical Risk = Risk+Non-Technical AssessmentPublic Concerns OR Risk= Hazard+Perception

Risk Communication Perception Less RiskyMore Risky VoluntaryInvoluntary FamiliarUnfamiliar Controlled by selfControlled by others FairUnfair NaturalArtificial Less RiskyMore Risky VoluntaryInvoluntary FamiliarUnfamiliar Controlled by selfControlled by others FairUnfair NaturalArtificial

Risk Communication Technical RationalityCultural Rationality Trust scientific methods Trust in democratic process Appeal to expertise Appeal to folk wisdom & peer groups Depersonalized risk Risk very personalized Emphasis on probability Emphasis on impact to family and community Technical RationalityCultural Rationality Trust scientific methods Trust in democratic process Appeal to expertise Appeal to folk wisdom & peer groups Depersonalized risk Risk very personalized Emphasis on probability Emphasis on impact to family and community

Risk Communication The early and on-going process of building and maintaining relationships based on mutual trust and respect through dialogue with diverse audiences about complex issues. The early and on-going process of building and maintaining relationships based on mutual trust and respect through dialogue with diverse audiences about complex issues.

Problem Involvement Dialogue Discussion Debate Dialogue Discussion Debate Understanding Agreement Disagreement Policy Budget Resources Budget Resources Political Legal Technical Political Legal Technical Factors Partnering Science/Technology Risk Evaluation Air Force Community Regulators Perspective Other Stakeholders GridlockLitigation Decision Solution Mutual

Risk Management Decision Engineering Risk Analysis Politics Economics Social