CLIMATE CHANGE SYMPOSIUM PART I PANELS: WATER IMPACTS URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS.

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Presentation transcript:

CLIMATE CHANGE SYMPOSIUM PART I PANELS: WATER IMPACTS URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS

Symposium Time Table 9:00 – 11:55 A.M. 5 minutes (9:00-9:05)ASCE President’s Welcome (David Mongan) 15 minutes (9:05-9:20)Moderator Remarks (George Bugliarello) 55 minutes (9:20-10:15)WATER IMPACTS PANEL 10 minutes (9:20-9:30)Panel Host Remarks (Leslie Ewing) 20 minutes (9:30-9:50)Peter Rogers 20 minutes (9:50-10:10)Walter Vergara 15 minutes (10:10-10:25)Discussion 10 minutes (10:25-10:35)BREAK (continued)

55 minutes (10:35-11:40)URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT PANEL 10 minutes (10:35-10:45)Panel Host Remarks (Brian Roberts) 20 minutes (10:45-11:05)Darren Wachtler 20 minutes (11:05-11:25)Scott L. Douglass 15 minutes (11:25-11:40)Discussion 15 minutes (11:40-11:55)GENERAL DISCUSSION Symposium Time Table (continued)

Moderator Remarks (George Bugliarello) Focus of the Panels: ENGINEERING CONSEQUENCES

World Population 1. The Urban Explosion 50% of world population live in cities, from 5% in % of world population live in areas exposed to: Floods, storm surges, sea level changes All increasingly impacted by climate change Rapid growth of megacities (>10 million inhabitants) 2. Cities explosively impact environment and climate Water Tables Heat Islands Atmospheric Pollution Footprints Stormwater Management in Expanding Urban Areas ……… 3. Increasing concerns about urban sustainability

Climate Changes Examples of expected temperature impacts: 1°C Change 2°C Change Disappearance of Arctic glaciers Weakening of density-driven Atlantic thermohaline circulation Less water (up to 30%) in Mediterranean and South Africa Irreversible melting of Greenland ice- sheet

Climate Changes [e.g., J. Flückiger, Science, Aug. 1, 2008] 1. Large climate shifts can occur within 1-3 yrs (e.g., Greenland ice) 2. Models/simulations of climate shifts show shifts considerably slower than observed ones 3. Possible causes of discrepancies: Focus on changes in ocean circulation, temperature, but neglect of wind patterns, atmospheric circulation,… Importance of precursor events e.g., in North Atlantic, changes in N 2 O concentrations

Consequences 1. Urgency of addressing the impacts of Urban Population Explosion Rapid Climate Changes 2. Both impacts interact UrbanizationClimate Change 3. No precedents on which to base our models

4. Imperatives: NEW MODELS (epistemological models with broader inputs) NEW APPROACHES 5. Assessment of validity of new models and approaches in comparison with real occurrences, iteratively Consequences (continued)