Analysis of Risk Network Behavior in Project Management Based on Simulation and Mathematical Modeling Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET, Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group LGI, Ecole Centrale Paris
Outline Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis Summary & Future Work
Outline Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis Summary & Future Work
Importance of Project Risk Management Society is more than ever exposed and averse to risks Project management is basically a risky activity: targets and constraints uncertainty and change complex with interrelated parameters
Complexity of Project and Risks The growing complexity of project induces the complexly interacted risk network.
Current Methodologies and Problems Most classical methods of PRM independently analyze individual risks
Current Methodologies and Problems Tree-structure methods still focus on single risk Bayesian Belief Network Not practical for large network Not adapt to properties of risk interactions Could not model “loop”
8 Outline Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis Summary & Future Work
Methodologies in Modeling Process Identification of interactions Expertise DSM (Design Structure Matrix) Evaluation of interactions Expertise Previous experience Modeling of risk network By simulation By mathematical algorithm
Original Project Risk List (case study)
Risk Interaction Matrix (case study)
Risk Interaction Network (case study)
Outline Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis Summary & Future Work
Simulation Model in ARENA (case study)
Simulation Results (case study) Some improbable risks have significant raising ratio Some underestimated risks escalate into higher level
Outline Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis Summary & Future Work
Summary Investigation of limits in literature Risk interaction network model Case study on a real project Simulation results compared with classical methods Underestimation of some risks with classical analysis due to the false independence assumption
Future Work Develop a mathematical model in order to approximate the behavior of the network (to be compared with simulation) Analyze consequence of complex scenarios like “loop” Tramway infrastructure project case study More parameters like time and cost of risks will be included and calculated Potential risk response and control solution
Merci de votre attention!