A Development Round of Climate Negotiations Tariq Banuri, SEI 2007

From Science to Policy DE C ∆TI What are critical impacts What is safe limit What is safe conc How much emissions are acceptable What should we do

Climate Tipping Points

Earthland

Climate Options Population Per Capita Income Energy Carbon Emissions Concentration CCS Shift to Renewables Energy Efficiency How much Is enough Limit Population

The Aggregate Challenge Population bns GDP/cap PPP$ E/Y MJ/$ C/E KgC/GJ C GtC , IS92a , K Need 2-3 not 55 ~ ppm Trajectory Little change possible, but final figure could be between 9 and 11 billions Higher income considered desirable but quality of growth could be improved Potential for change mainly here. It needs to be about 5 per cent of the projected numbers. ~1.0

The Context Income increase over 5x Trade increase nearly 12x 1950 – Rich 30x over Poor 1989 – Rich 60x over Poor 2000 – Rich 80x over Poor Global inequality is higher than inequality within any country, and it is getting worse.

Per Capita Emissions and Income Source: World Bank (1998); Marland, et al. (1998).

Anil Agarwal ( ) We need to follow a precautionary principle. We need to take cognizance of science very quickly, but have a healthy distrust of technological development, for whatever be its nature, when applied on a massive scale, it can have serious environmental impacts. One must be sceptical of these tendencies. Simultaneously one must take cognizance of any scientific evidence of damage at an early stage, not wait for a crisis before taking action.

Responsibility Phase: The UNFCCC PREAMBLE: Emphasizes differentiated responsibility, prevention of harm, differing needs, vulnerabilities, capabilities and resources. [12 out of 23 paragraphs] OBJECTIVES: Calls for economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. PRINCIPLES: Each of 5 principles includes equity considerations: equity, special needs, precautionary measures, right to sustainable development, and developing country growth.

Capacity Phase: Kyoto for the North Commitments by Annex 1 to reduce emissions by 5.2 % below 1990 by Mechanisms: flexible instruments, adaptation fund, inventories and baselines Principles: “Equity” disappears, financial and technological transfers less prominent, focus shifts to domestic action/options, separate but equal approach to sustainable development (minimize harm), developing countries exempted

Investment Phase 2009? The Folly of Conventional Options –Pressure South for commitments without any commitment on growth, inequality, or rights –Seek Southern projects only to lower Northern costs (Expanded CDM) – how effective? –Establish a global tradable permits regime (but is there willingness to make windfall transfers) Alternative approach: Support Transition to Renewables in the South

The Development Imperative Economic growth is the only recipe short of a global revolution to reduce inequality, establish human rights, and eradicate poverty The inability to mobilize international action on climate is in part because of the inequality Current solution—separate and equal—produces only a race between growth and catastrophe Only by integrating the twin goals (climate and development) can progress be made

Policy Credibility large-scale public works subsidy shifting conventional regulation green taxes and other non-trading market mechanisms legal action all backed and monitored by popular movements and evaluated against ambitious short- and long- term targets.

Integrating Climate and Development: digging deeper Rethinking North and South: The structural adjustment analogy Rethinking technology transfer: the green revolution analogy Rethinking policy: consistency, what we know, and investment Rethinking Costs: micro or macro Rethinking financing

Beyond Rearranging Deckchairs