Optimising Networking in Air Defence Dstl/CP12250 ISMOR 21, September 2004 Jackie Offord - C4/ISTAR Team Policy and Capability Studies

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Background Why optimise networking in AD? What is networking in Air Defence (AD)? –5 Network Levels For a range of spend levels, what are the most cost- effective options for networked air defence in terms of their contribution to the protection of –key BLUE assets from RED air threats and –BLUE and neutral air vehicles from BLUE kills?

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Protection Trade Off Protection of BLUE Assets Protection of BLUE and Neutral Aircraft Low Asset Protection & High Aircraft Protection Low Asset Protection & Low Aircraft Protection High Asset Protection & Low Aircraft Protection High Asset Protection & High Aircraft Protection × × × × × × × × × ×

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence The Optimisation Model Quick and Efficient method of finding Optimal Solutions It is set up to: Optimise the AD Protection provided in a phase of a scenario by varying the Deployment of networked AD systems within the constraints of Correct Identification and Cost OR Optimise the AD Correct Identification provided in a phase of a scenario by varying the Deployment of networked AD systems within the constraints of Protection and Cost

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Simplified Solution Space Protection Correct ID Line of constant effectiveness Cost Constraint Deployment Contraint Protection or Correct ID Constraint Protection Optimisation Correct ID Optimisation

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Objective Function 1st Priority –Defend the least well defended asset as much as possible –(Identify the least well identified ‘threat’ as much as possible) 2nd Priority –Defend all assets up to goal values –(Correctly identify all assets up to goal values) 3rd Priority –Increase performance of mix to spend remaining budget

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Results Format Aggregate results Each point is a run with different networking Each series is runs with different initial conditions Individual results Green shows protection provided against each track Purple shows correct ID ability on track Protection Correct ID Track

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Fitness for Purpose Mathematical Programming models have a bad reputation for being ‘black-boxes’ This model overcomes this with: –Simple formulation –Fast run time –Sensitivity analysis –Graphical results presented –Validation Meetings

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Fitness for Purpose Part of a complete methodology –Protection and Correct ID are not strictly linear –No time dimension nor simultaneous attacks –These are dealt with in campaign modelling Weights in objective function validated through sensitivity analysis and military review panel

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Methodology Data Collation Campaign Modelling Scenario Characterisation Optimisation

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Scenario Characterisation Protection Tasks Tracks Phases Systems Blue and Neutral Air Activity Networks Locations

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Data Collection Best available in timeframe Subject Matter Experts –Dstl and Industry Previous and current studies Military and Technical Judgement Panels –Including people with operational experience Trials and Experiments Reviewed by stakeholders

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Campaign Modelling COMAND - Sea/Air CLARION - Land/Air Used to: –Identify key BLUE assets for protection –Test robustness of Optimal Solutions Introduce Time element Introduce Coalition interoperability

© Dstl 2004 Dstl/CP12250 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence Summary Quick way of gaining insight into problem –Less than 6 months from conception to working model –Graphical presentation easy to interpret Provides structure and focus to data collection Limitations are understood and where possible mitigated Successful application of optimisation tool in a High Level BOI study