Seth Meyer FAPRI-MU ( University of Missouri Breimyer Seminar Columbia, MO May 27, 2010

Corn price is nearby futures price. Petroleum price is for West Texas Intermediate. Sources: USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service and Energy Information Adm.  Overview of major biofuel policies influencing biofuels  FAPRI biofuel outlook  Effect of expiration of credits and tariffs on the biofuel market

tax credits Given to fuel blenders per gallon blended ethanol tariffs Specific tariff on imports from most countries Renewable Fuel Standard Minimum levels of biofuel use by class (4) Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) are used to ensure compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties get required RINs by using biofuels or by buying RINs from others who have used biofuels in excess of their obligations.

 Biodiesel blenders credit of $1.00 per gallon  Expired December 31, 2009  Ethanol blenders credit $of 0.45 per gallon  Expires December 31, 2010  Ethanol import tariff of $0.54 per gallon*  Expires December 31, 2010  Cellulosic ethanol producers/blenders credit $1.01 per gallon  Expires December 31, 2010 *Specific quantities of ethanol from CBI countries are exempt, an additional 2.5% specific tariff is applied to all imports

Source: 2010 FAPRI Missouri stochastic baseline

 Biodiesel blenders credit of $1.00 per gallon  Expired December 31, 2009  Ethanol blenders credit $of 0.45 per gallon  Expires December 31, 2010  Ethanol import tariff of $0.54 per gallon*  Expires December 31, 2010  Cellulosic ethanol producers/blenders credit $1.01 per gallon  Expires December 31, 2010 *Specific quantities of ethanol from CBI countries are exempt, an additional 2.5% specific tariff is applied to all imports

Source: 2010 FAPRI Missouri stochastic baseline

 Interactions of larger cap and trade legislation with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2)  New energy bill, farm bill or conservation bill  Mandate waivers  California and NE-States establishing their own renewable fuel programs

 Multiple biofuel policies overlap and may have varying effects on biofuel and commodity markets depending on context  The blend-wall may be ‘taller’ than we assume  Second-generation biofuel growth is uncertain  More detail in the US Biofuel Baseline Briefing Book

TA C S B O Mandates T = overall mandate A = advanced mandate B = bio-based diesel mandate S = cellulosic mandate C = conventional ethanol gap O = other advanced gap

Source: 2010 FAPRI Missouri stochastic baseline