Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Outlook Pro Ag Fall 2011 Outlook Seminars Sheldon and Cherokee, Iowa Nov. 8, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,433 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081,128 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,576 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,8034,700 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0205,000 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,3951,410 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8351,600 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05312,710 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081, Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)2,9673,3593,3293,060 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.) Imports(mil. bu.)1315 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1853,5123,4953,290 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6621,7521,6481,635 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.) Exports(mil. bu.)1,2791,4991,5001,375 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0473,3613,2803,130 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.) Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Harvest Pace Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Harvest Pace Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 11/7/2011

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Crop Year Billion Bushels

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Blending Advantage

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics States with Room to Grow Number is the difference in planted acres between 2008 and 2011

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Crop Margins

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation  Supply/demand concerns  Smaller than anticipated U.S. crops  Biofuel growth and energy demand  Corn still has the upper hand in the acreage competition  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  2011/12:USDA:Corn $6.70; Soy $13.15 Futures (as of 11/7/11):Corn $6.27; Soy $11.69  2012/13: Futures (as of 11/7/11):Corn $5.94; Soy $11.80

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: