European Environment Agency ‘Trends and projections in Europe’ – Tracking progress towards Europe’s climate and energy targets for 2020 François Dejean Project manager – climate change mitigation EIONET energy meeting, 5 March

Policies put the EU on track to meet its 2020 climate and energy targets Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – 19 % between 1990 and 2013 (– 1.8 % between 2012 and 2013) At least – 21 % by 2020 according to national projections, beyond 20 % target Renewable energy sources 14 % of final energy consumption in 2012, ahead of the planned trajectory to hit 20 % by 2020 Appropriate investment and a transformation of the energy market needed to facilitate more penetration by renewables Energy efficiency  Energy consumption has been decreasing since 2005  Full implementation and enforcement of national energy efficiency policies is necessary to keep the EU on track to meet its 2020 energy efficiency target

Policies put the EU on track to meet its 2020 climate and energy targets Renewables are growing as planned, but further progress depends upon appropriate investment and a transformation of the energy market to facilitate more penetration by renewables Renewable energy sources 14 % of final energy consumption in 2012, ahead of the planned trajectory to hit 20 % by 2020 Energy efficiency  EU's energy consumption is also falling faster than would be necessary to meet the 2020 energy efficiency target.

The picture at Member State level is more mixed compared to that at EU level Nine countries making good progress in pursuing the three objectives No Member State underperforming in all areas Three Member States at risk of missing their ESD targets for projections WAM above ESD targets for six Member States Little or no projected emissions cuts in the transport and agriculture sectors Three Member States with insufficient RES growth Four Member States not on track towards energy consumption targets

EU ETS: 19 % below 2005 in Further measures to address the potential 2.5 billion EUAs surplus by 2020

2030 projections: further efforts required to keep the EU on track towards 2030 and 2050 goals

Effort Sharing Decision: EU emissions projected to remain below total AEAs. The annual gap could decrease or increase

ESD sectors: little or no projected emissions cuts in transport and agriculture Most EU-related policies and measures are targeting energy efficiency (energy services, buildings)

Cumulated AEAs: seven Member States with a potential deficit over 2013–2020 (if no AEAs transfers and no int’l credits)

The EU and MS on track towards RES targets, but more renewable energy needs to be deployed until %

Several Member States need to increase their RES support by 2020 to reach their legally binding 2020 target Increasingly steeper trajectory towards 2020 (outlined in the RED) – In absolute terms, more renewable energy needs to be deployed until 2020 than the cumulative deployment since – In relative terms, 5.4 % per year average increase of absolute renewable energy consumption between 2012 and 2020, vs. 6.4 % per year increase observed between 2005 and By 2020, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom need to achieve absolute RES growths that are four to seven times higher than the absolute increases these countries achieved between 2005 and Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Romania and Spain also need to achieve absolute growth two to three times higher compared to the period 2005 to % to 75 % share of renewables if EU is to meet its 2050 goals: renewables remain a key long-term climate mitigation option

Solid biomass for heating remains high, hydropower decreasing, fast penetration of new technologies

EU energy consumption is on a decreasing trend, below scenario and linear target path but further efforts needed

Overall level of ambition in Member States insufficient when compared to 2020 objectives

Some national targets set for 2020 provide large potential for increasing primary or energy consumption after 2012

Belgium, Estonia, Germany and Sweden are not on track towards either primary or final energy consumption targets.

The contribution of energy efficiency obligations schemes to final energy savings in end-use sectors could be limited Article 7 of the EED: Member States to achieve new savings of final energy consumption in end-use sectors – At least 1.5 % every year between 2014 and 2020 by using energy efficiency obligations schemes or other alternative policy measures – By 1 December 2020, at least 10.5% savings have to be achieved through new measures since 1 January The contribution of the commitments made under this requirement to fulfilling national energy efficiency targets could be limited: – Use of exemptions by Member States to reduce this target on energy savings – Inclusion of measures which are not eligible

EU current progress is greater than previously anticipated in scenarios where the achievement of targets is projected

New reporting under the MMR will help better analysing interactions between climate and energy policies

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