Perspectives in Computational Earth System Science an oceanographer’s view Aike Beckmann Division of Geophysics, Department of Physical Sciences

2 EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES ATMOSPHERE (Meteorology, Climatology) BIOSPHERE (Biology) CRYOSPHERE (Glaciology) GEOSPHERE (Geophysics, Geology) HYDROSPHERE (Oceanography, Hydrology) GOALS: comprehensive understanding of the global, regional and local processes and phenomena of the system

3 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS cosmos.enes.org/ public/project.html

4 EARTH SYSTEM MODELS ATMOSPHERE LAND SURFACE OCEAN SEA ICE ICE SHEETS BIOGEOCHEMISTRY - based on: coupled prognostic nonlinear partial differential equations - spatial scales: km to global - temporal scales: days to several millennia - configurations: global or regional

5 STATE-OF-THE-ART NUMEROUS COMPONENT MODELS ARE AVAILABLE COUPLING TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE COMPUTER RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE 100 km resolution, decadal studies (global models) 10 km resolution, decadal studies (regional models) ROBUST AND FLEXIBLE 2-WAY NESTING TECHNIQUES EMERGE FIRST PRODUCTION RUNS CAN BE CARRIED OUT

6 ESMs IN PROGRESS (IPCC WG1, 2001)

7 GOALS MORE REALISM = FINER RESOLUTION + MORE COMPLEXITY LONGER TIME SCALES 4x5 4/3x4/3

8 GOALS A FINNISH COMPONENT: HIGH LATITUDES

9 METHODS CONTINUED MODEL IMPROVEMENT DEVELOPMENT OF PARAMETRIZATIONS RIGOROUS VALIDATION PRODUCTION RUNS (e.g., IPCC) FOR ICE-OCEAN MODELLING ALONE to significantly contribute to international projects we need at least an order of magnitude better turnaround than currently available

10 OUTLOOK finite elements, adaptive grids

11 THE END Thank you !