NS4053 notes Week 2

Policy assignment Briefing book – Teams of 4-6. Minimum of two from NSA dept and two from Energy curriculum on each team. – Prepare briefing book consisting of briefing (DNE 10 slides), 2 page covering policy memo and individual background/policy papers from each team member. – Audience is fictional Interagency Policy Committee on Energy Security, chaired by NSC. – Focus on an actionable problem that can be addressed by US interagency process.

Candidate policy questions: China’s growing demand for energy: opportunities and threats for US national security. Russia’s energy policy: implications for international and US security. Impact of resource nationalism on future global energy supplies. Is a biofuel industry necessary for national defense? Nuclear energy in the wake of Fukushima: implications for future energy supplies. Limiting fuel consumption by deployed forces through alternative energy sources.

Where can a state get energy? TradeWar Domestic markets State ownership Less coercive More coercive National International

Energy in war Access to fossil fuels – SLOCs and international fuel sources – Consequences of fixed land-based production Logistics in theater – POL transport dilemma – Paradox of success Production – Role of state: incentives, control and coercion fuel production and fuel consumption – Magnet for attack Persistent belief in energy as economic ‘choke point’ Politics of distribution

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events. Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent, or arrogant Commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant Fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations — all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you could easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.” Winston Churchill (1930):

1973 Oil Shock Energy as a market – Role of supply: why so tight? – Role of demand: why so high? Oil ‘Embargo’ – What kind of embargo? Change in supply? Change in demand? Change in perceptions of the future supply?

International politics of energy – Why no general war over energy access? – Coordination vs. conflict among consumers? producers? Understanding oil – Oil as commodity (plenty) – Oil as something special (scarce)

Energy as instrument of statecraft Cartels and Oligopolies – When do they work? Sanctions (sticks): when do they work? – Relative distribution of costs – Relative utility of reputation – Nature of repeated interactions (conflict or coop) Inducements (carrots) – Under what circumstances is energy provision and effective inducement?

Energy today (Smil) Relentless rise in energy consumption. – Related to steadily declining real cost of energy? Relative availability of supplies. – Declining energy intensity after countries pass through initial industrialization. – How many countries have yet to pass through this phase? Poorly captured externalities of energy use Social and political consequences of energy Future trends: – consumption, production, sources, technologies.

Where can a state get energy today? TradeWar Domestic markets State ownership Less coercive More coercive National International