Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 1 HONR 229L: Climate Change: Science, Economics, and Governance The Economics of Climate Change, Part I Your name here 9 November 2015

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 2 As always, I suggest working the admission ticket questions into the presentation. But you have plenty to choose from, since the reading ends with a nice set of discussion questions. I suggest still working with the admission tickets, since most students will have thought of these questions just before class. Please note AT1, while involved numerically, is meant to build to a discussion of the last point. My suggestion if you use AT1, would be to get through the numerical parts quickly and spend time on part g)

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 3 a) Using the information on Figure 2, what was the total global emission of C in 2013? b) What was the world population in year 2013? (you will have to conduct your own research to obtain) c) What was the global per capita emission of C in year 2013? Please express the answer in units of metric tons of C per person d) What was the per capita emission of C in year 2013 by persons in the U.S.? And, by what ratio do we exceed the global per capita emission? e) What was the population of India in year 2013? (again, you will have to conduct internet search to find) f) If the economy of India were to suddenly expand, such that that per-capita emission of C from India were to match the per-capita emission of C form Germany in year 2013, how much would the total global C emission rise?

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 4 Here is Fig 2 in an easy to re-size format, should you want to use

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 5 Here is Fig 3 in an easy to re-size format, should you want to use

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 6 g) Based on your numerical estimates given above, do you agree or disagree with the assertion that the global imbalance in per capita emissions is a critical issue?

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 7 I think this image, which appears in the 27 page Stern Review summary posted at is fantastic. You can use in many ways. Please note we have not yet covered the contributions of various sectors to GHG emissions, at all. You could poll the class to see what percentage of total GHG emission they think the power (i.e., electricity) constitutes. I suspect most would guess high. Then, you can poll as to what second category would be, at least according to this report. To do this, you’d have to “cover up” the chart, like I’ve done next page.

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 8 Of course you would reverse the order of the slides. Now, if you do this, you’ll need to understand why Land Use comes in second! Must be deforestation and perhaps urbanization … you could research!

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 9 If you’d like to work with Q2, here it is: Figure 8 shows the relationship between the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST; reading calls this “Eventual Temperature Change”) and CO 2 e, or CO 2 -equivalent. a) What does CO 2 e mean? b) How high was CO 2 e in year 2013? c) What was the approximate atmospheric abundance of CO 2 in year 2013 and, based on this number, what is the ratio of CO 2 e/CO 2. d) Based on the ratio found above, should policy efforts be mainly focused on reducing anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 ?

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 10 And here is Figure 8 as an easy to re-size PNG

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 11 Here is Q3 Table 2 details the estimated annual damage to the US economy from global climate change, in units of billions of 1990 dollars, from five independent studies. The estimates of the damage vary widely between the studies: most interestingly, each study has a different category identified as most costly. a) What entry in this Table 2 was most surprising? Please include a phrase or sentence stating why this was most surprising? b) As noted above, each study has a different category identified as most costly. Based on either your intuition, other classes, perhaps prior detailed knowledge, which category do you believe will turn out to be most costly to the US economy, over the course of your lifetime, if climate change is not addressed? Again, please include a phrase, sentence, or perhaps a few sentences supporting this category. Spend as much or as little time on this as you’d like!

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 12 Here is Table 2

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 13 Here is Table 3, should you also want to use. Your call!

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 14 Only 4 questions, I must be slipping! Here is Q4: The Stern Review, issued in 2007, was extraordinarily influential. I have posted links to both the 4 page and 27 page executive summaries in the auxiliary material column for Monday’s class. I hope everyone will be able to read the 4 page PDF file prior to class (hey it’s only 4 pages and it is indeed a watershed report!) The reading lists three differences between the Stern Review and prior work of Nordhaus. a) What are these three differences? b) Pick one of these differences and expound upon why it is important for society to consider, when deciding what we shall do about climate change. You could: a) ask students to raise their hand and name one difference per person, until you get all three. Then, ask students to expound upon whatever difference you have listed first. After the students have had their say, you can them click and show them your explanation. Then, click and repeat for Diff #2 & Diff #3

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 15 With your interest in economics, perhaps you can make use of this plot and delve into the importance of the discount rate for cost benefit analysis

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 16 I think the 3 questions under #1, page 56 (page titled Discussion Question) are excellent and can be used in part or in whole. Your call. Finally, feel free to draw material from: (just words) (words, figs) should you so desire. Fig 3 of the 27 page Stern Review (next page) could be worth introducing; I’ll place on subsequent page

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 17 Here is Fig 3 from the 27-page Stern Review

Copyright © 2015 University of Maryland. This material may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without written permission from Ross Salawitch. 18 As I write to all of the students: a)truly your call on how to use the ~45 mins b)I like using some AT questions, to facilitate discussion, but I can tell from the feedback sheets that some students think this has been over done (if so, my fault!) c)If you send me a draft before noon on Mon, I can review and send comments. If you end up not ing final copy, then please aim to be present with final copy available either on laptop or memory stick at 4:45 pm