The TPP milestone: trade policy in the Asia-Pacific Peter A

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Presentation transcript:

The TPP milestone: trade policy in the Asia-Pacific Peter A The TPP milestone: trade policy in the Asia-Pacific Peter A. Petri Brandeis University, East-West Center and Peterson Institute Seoul ▪ November 2015

Trade policy, 2015 What are megaregionals? Past megaregionals? Large, high-quality agreements with systemic impact Past megaregionals? European Union NAFTA New megaregionals TPP TTIP (EU-US) RCEP (16 countries, East Asia) FTAAP (21 countries, APEC)

77% world GDP TTIP 44% RCEP 26% TPP 38%

What drives the TPP? Global value chains Technology Politics > Fast, reliable connectivity in goods and information Remove border and regulatory barriers Create access to world-class services Enable investment Technology > Innovative, secure digital commerce Keep data flows free Protect digital intellectual property Provide for privacy with cybersecurity Politics Labor, environment, development Geopolitics

What did the TPP accomplish? Achievements Liberal services with “negative list” Liberal investment with “negative list” Liberal e-commerce Liberal data flows Cumulative rules of origin Stronger regulatory framework Protection of environment, worker rights Compromises Market access (autos, agriculture) Intellectual property Long phase-in periods Hidden exceptions?

Ratification in the US Necessary steps: It’s too big to fail! Publish the agreement USITC study (up to 6 months?) Draft implementing legislation March-May: Congressional vote? In middle of US presidential primaries? Alternative 1: November lame-duck session Alternative 2: early next presidential term It’s too big to fail!

What comes after the TPP? Suddenly, a big trade agenda Competitive liberalization Expansion of the TPP Conclusion of TTIP, RCEP Plurilateral agreements in Geneva Big bi/trilaterals: CJK, China-US, India-US FTAAP? But it won’t be fast KORUS took 5-7 years TPP took 7-8 years RCEP is in year 3…

What would the TPP do for Korea? Market access Japan and other economies Indirect trade Cumulation effects: exports to Viet Nam, Mexico Link into value chains of the TPP network Influence In evolution of TPP In regional agreements such as FTAAP As intermediary between China and US?

Scenarios for Korea, 2025 ($billions) GDP TPP With Korea RCEP FTAAP Korea 2,117 -3 46 82 129 United States 20,273 77 78 -0 267 China 17,249 -35 -47 250 678 World 103,223 223 295 644 1,922 Note: based on 2012 simulations, to be updated soon.

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