District 32 Republican Club Presentation of Fall 2015 Survey Findings – Anne Arundel County Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College December 1, 2015 www2.aacc.edu/csli

Semi-annual Survey: Overview Survey conducted in October and March Contents devised by director and advisory board Many benchmark questions (at beginning) Demographic questions (at end) Changing middle part – policy, attitudes, behaviors Administration: Telephone (by students) and online Fall completions: 589

Benchmark Questions Most important problem facing residents Right/wrong direction – county, state and country Economic conditions – excellent, good, fair, poor Economic experiences/expectations

County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘07 to Fall ‘15

County: Most Important Question - Fall ‘15

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Fall ‘00 to Fall ‘15

Right/Wrong Direction – County, State, Nation: Fall ‘12 to Fall ‘15

Economic Conditions: ( excellent+good) County vs. Maryland and USA

Economic indicators, Fall 2008-Fall 2015

Economic indicators, Fall 2015 Condition Under $75,000 $75,000+ Under $75k- Over 75K Signif Hard to afford cost of food and groceries Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living Facing the possibility of unemployment Found a new or better job recently Hard to afford the cost of education Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently

Economic Conditions over the next 12 Months BetterSameWorseUnsure/NATotal Economic growth Unemployment Inflation Your personal financial situation

Policy Questions Merger of services: AA County and Annapolis Teachers’ salaries Federal auction of CO2 credits Placement of group homes Is Annapolis doing enough about sea level rise/flooding Ideal size of high schools Medical marijuana How well has County dealt with various challenges over last year

Public Policy Agreement AgreeDisagreeCan’t decide No answer Anne Arundel County and Annapolis are reviewing ways to combine government services. Do you agree or disagree with these efforts? County Executive Steve Schuh has proposed to prohibit the planting, processing and sale of medical marijuana in Anne Arundel County. Some members of the County Council have proposed allowing these activities, but with a set of restrictions that limit where these activities can occur. Which position do you favor – total prohibition, or allowing with restrictions? County teachers and the Board of Education are at impasse over contract talks. Teachers believe that they should be awarded salary increases even if it means cuts in other areas of school spending. Do you agree or disagree with the teachers? Do you agree or disagree with the idea that the federal government establish a cap on carbon emissions, auction carbon permits to energy companies, and return all auction proceeds to citizens as a dividend? Currently the County imposes no limits over the location of group homes for unrelated individuals with health concerns. Some have advocated restrictions on group homes’ locations. Do you agree or disagree? Do you agree or disagree that Annapolis is doing enough to deal with flooding due to storm surges and sea level rise? County Executive Steve Schuh has favored high schools with 1200 students; the Board of Education commissioned a study which recommended 1600 as the target high school size. Do you agree or disagree with the Board’s larger size?

Public Policy and Partisanship

How well has County dealt with challenges during the last year? Problem Better- Worse Gotten better About the same Gotten worse Unsure/N o answer Improving the local economy Improving the overall quality of life in our County Improving the water quality of the Bay Planning growth and development Reducing the backlog in school maintenance and repair Keeping taxes low Controlling crime Reducing poverty and homelessness

How well has County dealt with challenges by party

Various Politics Questions Trust in political parties Job approval – county executive, governor, president Presidential voting intentions Correlations between “major factor shaping your preference” and actual candidate choices

Trust in Party by Registration

Job approval, Spring 2014/Fall 2015 NA Schuh 35 Hogan 15 Obama 10

Presidential Job Approval Fall 2007 to Fall 2015

Presidential Preferences

Presidential Preferences by Party/Ideology 47

Candidates and Age Groups: Above/Below Overall Vote

Candidates and Formal Education Above/Below Overall Vote

Candidates and Gender Above/Below Overall Vote

Candidates and Issues ClintonSandersCarsonTrump Rubio Economy Foreign policy Inequality Immigration Spending, debt Constitution Liberal Taxes, lower Health Care Business pro Womens issues Party Crime/safety Education Environment Smaller govt, less regs Guns Anti-corporate Abortion - anti Conservative Military Religion - pro Other Total

Candidates and Traits ClintonSandersCarsonTrumpRubio Leadership, competence Honest, trustworthy, independent Consensus builder Fresh face, change Experience America first Hard truths, frankness Working people, cares Middle class Ethical Character Electable Intelligence Total