US GLOBEC NWA Program Phase 4B Synthesis Workshop 10/2-3/2006 – 507 Clark Laboratory, WHOI Logistics Logistics – Continental breakfast today & tomorrow – Lunches today and tomorrow – Dinner tonight, Capt Kidd – Breakout rooms: Clark 509 and Clark 5 Library room. Workshop Goals Workshop Goals – Present early progress – Establish communication links/needs – Larger program goals Agenda Agenda

US GLOBEC NWA Program Workshop 10/2-3/2006 – 507 Clark Laboratory, WHOI Agenda Mon, Oct 2 9:05-12:30 Project talks 12:30-1:30 Lunch 1:30-4:00 Intra-inter-project communications 4:00-4:15 Plenary – Overview of Major Themes 4:15-5:30 Working groups discuss themes 6:00 Dinner at Capt Kidd Tues, Oct 3 9:00-11:00 Working groups discuss themes 11:00-12:00 Plenary discussion of themes Next meeting, Prog. Oce. volume Next meeting, Prog. Oce. volume

US GLOBEC NWA Program Overall Objective To understand the B/P processes controlling recruitment of cod and haddock and their dominant prey species. Georges Bank Haddock: Biomass at Age Not just Fish!

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics Calanus Diapause Larval Fish Dynamics Basin-scale Calanus IBM Data/model synthesis working group Global-Basin-Regional interactions

Processes Controlling Abundance of Dominant Copepod Species on Georges Bank: Local Dynamics and Large-Scale Forcing Davis, Beardsley, Chen, Ji, Durbin, Townsend, Runge, Flagg Objectives: To understand the biological-physical mechanisms controlling the development of 3D spatial patterns of lower food web (NPZD) and dominant copepod species on GB/GOM (days to years). To understand the biological-physical mechanisms controlling the development of 3D spatial patterns of lower food web (NPZD) and dominant copepod species on GB/GOM (days to years). Examine local-dynamics and external forcing. Examine local-dynamics and external forcing. Determine the relative importance of food, predation, and advection. Determine the relative importance of food, predation, and advection. Use FVCOM together with GLOBEC and other data sets, to conduct targeted numerical experiments: sustainability, SW and SS intrusions, catastrophic warming. Use FVCOM together with GLOBEC and other data sets, to conduct targeted numerical experiments: sustainability, SW and SS intrusions, catastrophic warming. Website:

FVCOM GridLocal dynamics Large-scale forcing Slope Water Intrusions Upwelling Calanus Physical forcing SS Water Intrusions

General Hypothesis The seasonal evolution of characteristic spatial patterns of each dominant copepod species on GB/GOM is predictable from the interaction between its characteristic life-history traits and the biological and physical environment. CalanusPseudocalanus Temora, Oithona, Centropages

FVCOM Integrated Model System Concentration-based Food-web and Copepod Species Models

Physics Nutrients and Phytoplankton Copepod Species Input data FVCOM model Model Output 3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period

1.What are the key mechanisms controlling recruitment success the target species? e.g. the bonanza year classes of haddock (1998, 2003) 2.What are the physical and biological processes that link global/basin and the GB/GOM region? e.g. intrusions, warming, winds 3.What is the relative importance of top-down vs. bottom-up forcing of GOM/GB ecosystem? 4.What are the big ideas to come out of GLOBEC NWA? 5.What are the products/transitions of GLOBEC NWA? e.g. operational products, lead-ins to new scientific programs. Major Themes

Chen et al…..

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics Detailed 3D analysis of physical-biological mechanisms Lower food-web dynamics (NPZD) Dominant copepod species population dynamics Regional model (Halifax to New Jersey) Local forcing and large scale forcing through boundaries Mechanistic understanding of how GOM/GB ecosystem responds to local and remote forcing Provides copepod prey fields for larval fish modeling

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis Larval Fish Dynamics Regional models of Norwegian Shelf and GB/GOM Basin-scale model (ROMS) connecting these regions Detailed individual based models of cod and haddock Examines effect of intrusions in these regions Requires copepod concentrations generated by FVCOM Develops full-life cycle models for cod and haddock

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis Calanus Diapause Data analysis and IBM modeling of Calanus Environmental factors controlling dormancy Compares data from different regions (GB/GOM, SS, GSL) Develops and uses IBMs of Calanus dormancy Inter-annual and long term changes

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis Basin-scale Calanus IBM Basin-scale model (ROMS) of NWA with IBM of Calanus Climate and circulation on Calanus transport onto GB Compares high and low NAO years , interannual variation in seeding and production Long-term physical, biological, SST data sets

GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis Data/model synthesis workshops Global-Basin-Regional interactions Working group on climate impacts on NWA ecosystems Climatologists, oceanographers, fisheries scientists Leads to operational tools for management Focus on freshwater intrusions in NWA shelf and slope Retrospective data analysis