Session 4 : Policy and governance; costs and financing Financial Sustainability as a Reference for the Development of Post-Primary Education in Sub-Saharan African Countries Alain Mingat

Progress towards universal primary completion to generate strong pressures upon demand for post-primary education services What is the magnitude of the challenge of expansion of post-primary education in logistical terms? What are the quantitative and qualitative options? What is the magnitude of the challenge in financial terms and how can financing be ensured? Given the wide disparities across countries in service delivery parameters : The need of a sectoral quantitative framework to structure the discussions The Issues at Stake

* Instrument : financial simulation model for each of the 33 IDA countries of the region with option for quantity, quality and financing dimensions Option quantity : i) Perspective of continuity; expansion of enrollment at the bottom to progressively percolate to the top of the system (options in the values of the transition rates) ii) Perspective of discontinuity; progressive expansion of lower secondary education towards universal coverage and control of enrolments beyond so as to cope with anticipated labor markets demands iii) Perspective of building a 9 year cycle of basic education Methodology of the study (1)

Methodology of the study (2) * Option quality : i) Use of 2 indicative frameworks to identify service delivery parameters :. Preferred. more cost-conscious albeit reasonable ii) Flexible indicative frameworks to cope with variation in per capita GDP of countries and share of rural population (85 % of youngsters of lower secondary schooling age but currently not in school are rural) and provision for the case of remote areas and vulnerable populations Not enrolled Not Enrolled Enrolled RuralUrban

Main results (1) * With the FTI figure of 20 % for the priority for education in public resources, spending for the sector exceed widely domestic funding in all configurations * The mix of the discontinuity perspective and cost- conscious parameters for service delivery is to be seriously considered * The 9 years of basic education formula is possible but its costs are close to those obtained with a wide coverage of lower secondary education and the cost conscious parameters for service delivery in lower secondary education * It will generally be necessary to envisage a level of priority for the sector above 20 % (additional resources thus mobilized being allocated to post primary schooling)

Main results (2) * If the dependency to external financing ratio is to remain below 35 %, the choice of:. the perspective of discontinuity. the cost conscious set of parameters for service delivery and. a priority for the sector set at least at 23 % of domestic public resources must be considered, for a vast majority of the 33 countries * With 20 % for the sectoral priority, the objectives of coverage in lower secondary education will need be revised downward in most countries; transition rate between primary and lower secondary education to stand below 65 % * Beyond the global perspective, the case of individual countries is very different:. relatively manageable in countries such as Ghana or Mauritania. more difficult in countries such as Tanzania or Zambia and. very difficult in countries such as Burkina Faso or Burundi

* Even though the case differs significantly across countries, choices are going to be difficult in all of them * The dimension of financial costing and sustainability is crucial to consider; the examples of Ghana, Niger and Tanzania, documented during recent workshops made to test the relevance of the instrument, show that the plans spontaneously envisaged may be very distant from the sustainability criterion: country specific analytical work needs be undertaken in each of them * The simulations made in that study use the year 2020 as for the horizon of the programs; the difficulties encountered imply that it will often be necessary, not to change the objectives, but to consider a longer time perspective * Irrespective of the choices made and of the reasonable time horizon considered, support from external aid will necessarily be called upon for significant financial amounts. It is important that it anticipates the response it could provide to the challenges to come Main lessons