Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory

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Presentation transcript:

Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia A Tool for Climate Change Policies Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory Presented by Orapan Nabangchang Sida SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY Canadian International Development Agency Agence Canadienne de Développment International

Vulnerability mapping as a tool Vulnerability assessment at sub-national levels Socio-economic dimension of vulnerability assessment Public discussions & Research  …appropriate CC-policies

Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING Climatic Hazards Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity IPCC FRAMEWORK

Climatic Hazards Tropical Cyclones Drought Flood Landslide Sea level rise

Tropical Cyclones Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

Drought Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

Flood Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

Landslide Landslide Exposure Index Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

Sea Level Rise Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) Source: CRESIS

Population displaced by 1m and 5m SLR Source: Authors’ calculation

All Climate Hazards Index All hazards Index Source: Authors’ calculation

Sensitivity Population Density Extent of Protected Area

Population Density Population Density (persons per km square) Source: CIESIN

Extent of Protected Areas National Protected Areas Source: WWF

Sensitivity Index of sensitivity Source: Authors’ calculation

Adaptive Capacity Socioeconomis Human Development Index (Income, Longevity, Education) Poverty Incidence Inequality Technology Electricity Coverage Extent of Irrigation Infrastructure Road Density Communication

Adaptive CapacityAdaptive Capacity SOCIO-ECONOMICS TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE Human Development Index Standard of Living Longevity Education 0.50 1/3 Poverty Incidence 0.28 Income Inequality 0.22 Electricity Coverage 0.53 Extent of Irrigation 0.47 Road Density Communication ADAPTIVE CAPACITY 0.25 aj Vulnerability, Vj = (1/3) ej + (1/3) sj + (1/3) aj

Adaptive Capacity Index of Adaptive Capacity Source: Authors’ calculation

Human Development Index Source: various sources and author’s calculation

Poverty Incidence Poverty incidences (percent of poor population, national poverty line) Source: various sources and author’s calculation

Inequality Gini Coefficient Source: various sources and author’s calculation

Electricity Coverage Electricity Coverage (% of households with access) Source: various sources

Road Density Road Density (length of road/1000 km2 in logarithm) Source: various sources

Extent of Irrigation Percent of irrigated agriculture areas Source: various sources

Communication Percent of population with access to fixed phone network Source: various sources

Climate Change Vulnerability Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Source: Author’s calculation

Vulnerable Regions (SEA std) Vulnerable regions: Areas falling in the 4th quartile Source: Author’s calculation

SEA Mapping shows: Climate Hotspots: Big parts of Philippines; Cambodia & Lao PDR Mekong River Delta Bangkok West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Western Java, and Eastern Java of Indonesia Adaptive capacity is generally critical in reducing vulnerability Key cities in SEA are vulnerable!

Mapping as a decision making tool Visualization aid Vulnerable/hot spots; It enables us …to bring the socioeconomic dimensions in vulnerability assessment Allows downscaling of Vulnerability Assessment: sub-national levels (590 provinces/districts) Facilitates discussions of major stakeholders Media Citations National Debate/discussions Local government interests Blog discussions on the methods/areas for improvement Potential: Sub-national Decision Support system (Pilot testing)

Limitations/Future Works Static Analysis: changes & future events Data limitation prevents more extensive coverage of variables and use of better proxies Ad-hoc approach for the weights in calculating indices sensitivity analysis and incorporation of uncertainty Sectoral adaptation capacity/needs Development of a program for this decision-making tool

FYI: What other research do we do? Efficient use/Cost-effective adaptation options Ways to remove barriers to adoption Finding ways to enhance Adaptive Capacity (all levels, sector) More studies on the economics of adaptation options & adaptation behaviour.

Adaptation Behavior : Study sites

Thank you Herminia A. Francisco Arief Yusuf Anshory (hfrancisco@idrc.org.sg; arief.yusuf@fe.unpad.ac.id) Orapan Nabangchang onabangchang@idrc.org.sg Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia Sida Canadian International Development Agency Agence Canadienne de Développment International SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY