NEDC/WLTP correlation process Meeting of TCMV on 17 November 2015

Objective Ensure applicability of a more robust and precise emissions test procedure – WLTP - at type approval from 1 September 2017 Ensure availability of more realistic CO2 emission and fuel consumption values - short term for consumer purposes - longer term for new CO2 emission standards Ensure that the CO2 reduction requirements agreed by the co-legislators for 2020 remain of comparable stringency following the change in test procedure

CO2 emission standards for cars EU fleet targets are based on NEDC: 130g CO2/km in 2015 95g CO2/km in 2021 (phased-in from 2020) Individual manufacturer targets are set annually to check compliance with the EU fleet target CO2 emission data is monitored annually to calculate: - manufacturer targets - average CO2 emissions of the respective OEM fleets

Effects of WLTP introduction CO2 emission values will increase (on average) – increase will differ between different manufacturers Manufacturer fleets will temporarily include both NEDC and WLTP type approved CO2 values Creates a need for ensuring a homogeneous CO2 emissions dataset for checking manufacturers' compliance with their individual CO2 target

Transition from NEDC to WLTP 1 September 2017: New vehicle models: WLTP approved Existing vehicle models: NEDC approved 1 September 2018: All vehicle models: WLTP approved End-of-series: NEDC approved 1 September 2019: All vehicles: WLTP approved

The need for correlation WLTP CO2 emissions will be higher than NEDC CO2 and the increase will differ between different manufacturers Commission has to provide a correlation methodology to ensure "comparable stringency" : the CO2 reduction effort for each manufacturer must be comparable following the change from the old to the new test procedure

Proposal – NEDC based regime applies NEDC based regime applicable until WLTP is fully implemented: NEDC based EU fleet targets continue to apply during the transition to WLTP and until new EU targets enter into force – post 2021: – 130g until 2019 - 95g in 2021 (phased-in from 2020) From 2021 compliance with the EU fleet targets is checked against WLTP based manufacturer targets and WLTP CO2 emissions From 2021 NEDC CO2 values are no longer monitored (exception super credit vehicles)

Proposal – homogeneous dataset for compliance purposes During the transition period, NEDC CO2 values is to be determined for all vehicles that are WLTP approved using: A software tool simulating the NEDC test procedure or The physical NEDC vehicle test, in those cases where the simulation tool cannot deliver sufficient accuracy

CO2MPAS correlation tool Facilitates transition to WLTP by avoiding extensive double testing campaigns Uses robust WLTP test data as input for the NEDC calculation Includes key NEDC test conditions that are explicitly regulated or confirmed by national type approval authorities Stream-lines other NEDC test conditions and removes some flexibilities

CO2MPAS test conditions NEDC test conditions proposed: Vehicle inertia Pre-conditioning effect Set lab temperature Battery state of charge Tyre pressure Tyre tread depth Inertia of rotating parts NEDC flexibilities removed: NEDC coast down not used (WLTP coast down used as input) NEDC driving profile tolerance Test track slope Lab temperature range

CO2MPAS accuracy Expected accuracy is achieved for appr. 70% of the simulated cases (+/-2gCO2) : Pilot testing using measurement data is on-going Mock-up type approval tests to be performed over spring 2016 with Technical Services Type approval version ready September 2016

Systematic errors CO2MPAS will be "frozen" for its usage period Systematic errors must be detected and corrected – can be both positive and negative The Commission has proposed a statistical methodology including random vehicle testing Work is on-going to simplify the methodology

http://co2mpas.io/

Double testing Manufacturers can demonstrate to the type approval authority if CO2MPAS does not deliver sufficient accuracy Physical vehicle tests to be performed on the same conditions as for the simulation test

Final correlation steps Correlated NEDC CO2 values to be used for the WLTP CO2 family – test vehicle high and low Interpolated NEDC CO2 values to be used in the certificate of conformity of individual vehicles

Type approval authorities' responsibility Determine the input data for CO2MPAS Run CO2MPAS and determine the correlation output Determine which of the following to use for TVL/TVH: - CO2MPAS value - Physical measurement - OEM declared value Record deviations between OEM declared value, CO2MPAS value and measured values

Adaptation of the monitoring system VIN-based system needed Additional parameters to be monitored, i.e. - NEDC + WLTP CO2 emissions - NEDC + WLTP eco-innovation savings - WLTP test mass - Correlation deviation factors to check systematic errors and potential abuse

2021 WLTP based system Example: In 2020 all vehicles will have both NEDC and WLTP CO2 emission values The average emissions on WLTP are compared with the manufacturer's performance in meeting its annual NEDC target Example: If the fleet average in 2020 of an OEM is 95g NEDC and the NEDC OEM target is 95g, the WLTP target for 2021 is the average WLTP emissions in 2020

No change to 95/147g or limit value curves TARGET TRANSITION NEDC average emissions NEDC 2020 monitoring database Distance to the 95g based NEDC specific emission target NEDC specific emission target (95gCO2 based) WLTP 2021 specific emission target (adjusted +/- % - proportional method) WLTP 2020 monitoring database WLTP average emissions From 2022: WLTP target adjusted according to the change in OEM fleet mass

Next steps Issues to be addressed: NEDC test conditions: ACEA request for changes Simplification of the methodology to address systematic errors in CO2MPAS Finalisation of CO2MPAS - Workshops with type approval authorities on 26-27 Nov and manufacturers/NGO on 14-15 Dec - Final type approval version ready Sept 2016

Next steps… Ensuring consistency between WLTP regulation and the correlation procedure Finalisation of the draft regulations Vote in Climate Change Committee and Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles 1st quarter 2016

Thank you!