National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 1 National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Fred Toepfer, PM Dave McCarren, Deputy PM

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 2 NUOPC Purpose and Motivation The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System – Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology – Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures – Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability – Leverage the broader US R&D investment – NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 3 Background NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-Agency management organization Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC Initial dialog with Stakeholders, March 2007 Phase I approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DoC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A3O-W, and Navy N84) 2008 Jan 22: Executive Steering Group (ESG) appointed Project Manager, approved ESG Charter for signature and authorized further resolution of “Stretch Goals” for IOC-1 Follow-up dialog with Stakeholders, April 2008 Three Interim Committees established; chairs appointed, membership selected, first meetings conducted in August 2008 Executing Phase I

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 4 NUOPC Vision (2015) AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) Managed operational ensemble diversity Joint ensemble –Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather –Mission Specific ensemble products National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 5 Focused R & D Developmental Test Center - Analysis Other Forecast Systems Physics (1,2,3) ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, communications, etc Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Coupler Dynamics (1,2) Application Driver NUOPC Component System Vision: A National Global Modeling System

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 6 Single National Effort Through Coordination NSF Navy & NOAA R&D AMS Academia Other Agencies NASA NCEP FNMOCAFWA NUOPC Operational Centers

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 7 Agency Senior Management Executive Steering Group (ESG): –Executive-level agency representative and associate representative from each agency –Provide overall policy and oversight –Provide resource commitments on behalf of agency principals –Approve Implementation Plan and Concept of Operations Agency Principals: –NOAA: Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of NOAA –AF: Director, Air Force Weather –Navy: Oceanographer of the Navy –Provide broad policy guidance –Ensure sustained agency support –Provide approval authority for execution of NUOPC Phases

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 8 Role of the Meteorological Community Participate in committees defining NUOPC concepts and plans: –Common Model Architecture Committee –Technology Transition Processes Committee –Unified Ensemble Operations Committee Support national research and development agenda Support developmental standards and contribute to research needs of the operational community. Provide external/independent review and comment on committee recommendations Research and Development Community is Part of the Process

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 9 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II FOC Beta Test Phase III INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS OPERATIONS OUTREACH ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX, EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING COMM, IA, HPC CONOPS, BUDGET DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS FOC IOC-2IOC-1 TRANSITION CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM RESEARCH AGENDA DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS AMS CONFERENCES

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 10 Activity Management With NUOPC FNMOC AFWA NCEP NUOPC Executive Steering Group (AFW) & (AFWA) (N84) & (CNMOC) (NWS) & (OAR) ESG Executive Agent NUOPC Management PM/DPM R e q u i r e m e n t s R & D Common Operational Needs Centers A g e n c y t a s k i n g Recommendations OFCM Coordination Oversight & Tasking

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 11 Approach Common global modeling architecture –To achieve necessary Operating efficiencies Interoperability Enable benefits of partnership –ESMF-based Multi-component system –Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles –Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error Products will address mission needs for –Hurricane storm track and intensity –Severe weather (for all agencies) Ensembles used across all agencies to –Define most likely forecast –Quantify uncertainty Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms will be explored

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 12 NUOPC Committees & Focus Common Model Architecture Committee -Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR, NASA Technology Transition Processes Committee -Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR, Army Unified Ensemble Operations Committee -Task: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products. -Membership from NOAA, Navy, AF, NCAR

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 13 HFIP Plan Operational Model SuiteDemonstration System Global model: GFS T382 (~35km), 64 layers Global ensemble: GFS T126 (100km), 28 layers, 20 members (40 with NAEFS); FIM will be tested at 60km when ported Regional model: No upgrade for 2009 season. HWRF work on physics package upgrade and coupled ocean continues. HWRF 9km, 69 levels, coupled ocean (POM) Regional Ensemble: 35-45km, layers, multi-member ensemble (ARW, NMM, RSM, ETA) 21 members (non- hurricane model fixed domain) NHC Consensus Ensemble: Track (GFSI, EGRI, NGPI, GFMI, HWFI); Intensity (DHSP, LGEM, GHMI, HWFI, GFNI) Data assimilation, Global: GSI Data assimilation regional: GSI Global Model: FIM 10km, 64 layers Global ensemble: FIM 30km, 64 layers, 5 members; GFS 30km 2-5 members; NOGAPS, 15km, 0-2 members (in negotiation) Regional Model: HWRF-X 1km, 42 layers Regional Ensemble: 4-9 km, layers, multi-member ensemble (ARW [two versions], HWRF, HWRF- X [two versions], COAMPS-TC, GFDL) Data assimilation global: GSI, EnKF, NAVDAS Data assimilation regional: EnsKF (with Tail Doppler data when available)

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 14 Ensembles Fans of Ensembles

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 15 Combination of raw ensembles Winter hPa height (CRPS) 2-meter temperature (CRPS) 10-meter U (CRPS) 850hPa temperature (CRPS) E20s – NCEP raw E36g – NCEP+FNMOC E40g – NCEP+CMC E56g – all three

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 16 Next Phase Prototype Product Development Joint wind, wave, temp probability product Joint visibility ceiling probability product Hurricane Track Probability National R&D Agenda Low resolution Joint Ensemble (NAEFS) NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Demonstration Navy Arctic Capability Development

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 17 National NWP R&D Agenda We will define the tri-agency operational needs Establish common purpose and priorities Driven by operational needs Unify and integrate efforts of research community Engage: NSF NASA NCAR

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 18 Chair Maj Marc Hidalgo 1 Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove Navy (CNO N84) RADM Titley NOAA Administrator Dr.Lubchenco NOAA Administrator Dr. Lubchenco Executive Steering Group NUOPC Project Manager Fred Toepfer NUOPC PM/DPM Fred Toepfer/Dave McCarren Dr. JohnZapotocny Lt Col Bruce Lambert Dr. JohnZapotocny Lt Col Dave Miller Kim Curry Steve Payne Kim Curry Steve Payne Joel Cline Jeremy Potter David Soroka Jeremy Potter Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Technology Transition Technology Transition Agency Liaisons Agency Liaisons Interim Committees Interim Committees Common Model Architecture Common Model Architecture Unified Ensemble Operations Unified Ensemble Operations NUOPC Support Staff Fran Bieker* / Paul Demmert* / Scott Sandgathe / William O’Connor* NUOPC Support Staff Mike Horner / Paul Demmert / Scott Sandgathe / William O’Connor’ NUOPC Staff Chuck McKinley NUOPC Staff Chuck McKinley NUOPC Management Staff NUOPC Management Staff Chair Mike Clancy Chair Scott Sandgathe NUOPC Support Structure