Activities of the new WG7 Chiara Marsigli

WP Development of COSMO-LEPS Maintenance and updates of the operational suite at ECMWF (A. Montani) Study, development and implementation of new clustering and member selection techniques (A. Montani) –Mainly for short-range forecast Testing the use of different sources for the initial conditions of soil fields (“soil merge”) (A. Montani, A. Walser) –Completed. Now COSMO-LEPS runs with COSMO-EU soil Generation of calibrated COSMO-LEPS forecasts (T. Diomede) –Formerly part of CONSENS PP –Calibrated QPF will be operationally distributed by the end of the year (only for subdomains!) Tests for the LAM-EPS BC project (A. Montani)

WP Development of an ensemble system for the Sochi olympic games Part of CORSO PP

WP Perturbation of the surface fields Formerly part of CONSENS PP (HNMS task) A technique for soil-moisture perturbation for COSMO has been developed First tests are on-going The work will continue as part of WG7 activities (ARPA-SIMC)

WP Verification of ensemble forecasts Collaboration with WG5 and VERSUS for ensemble forecasting verification

WP Development of convection- permitting ensembles Product development and evaluation (MCH, A. Walser, M. Arpagaus) Studying model perturbations for COSMO at 2.8 km over Italy (ARPA- SIMC C. Marsigli, USAM/CNMCA L. Torrisi) Evaluate ECMWF LAM-EPS BC test data-sets for the convection- permitting scale (ARPA-SIMC, MCH)

WG7 people Chiara Marsigli - ARPA-SIMC Andrea Montani – ARPA-SIMC Tiziana Paccagnella – ARPA-SIMC André Walser - Meteoswiss Flora Gofa – HNMS Petroula Louka – HNMS S. Theis – DWD E. Astakhova – Hydromet Center of Russia D. Alferov – Hydromet Center of Russia

7.1Development of COSMO-LEPS 7.1.1Maintenance and updates of the operational suite at ECMWF ARPA-SIMC, A. Montani on-going 7.1.2Study, development and implementation of new clustering and member selection techniques ARPA-SIMC, A. Montani starting in autumn Testing the use of different sources for the initial conditions of soil fields (“soil merge”) ARPA-SIMC, A. Montani, MCH, A. Walser completed 7.1.4Generation of calibrated COSMO-LEPS forecasts ARPA-SIMC, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, A. Montani on-going 7.1.5Tests for the LAM-EPS BC projectARPA-SIMC, A. Montani on-going 7.2Development of an ensemble system for the Sochi olympic games 7.2.1SOCHMELARPA-SIMC on-going

7.3Perturbation of the surface fields 7.3.1Development of soil moisture perturbationsHNMS, P. Louka, F. Gofa ARPA-SIMC, C. Marsigli on-going 7.4Verification of ensemble forecasts 7.4.1Verification of ensemble forecastsWG7-WG5 C. Marsigli, A. Montani, A. Walser starting next year 7.5Development of convection-permitting ensembles 7.5.1Product development and evaluationMCH, A. Walser, M. Arpagaus starting in autumn Studying model perturbations for COSMO at 2.8 km over Italy ARPA-SIMC, C. Marsigli USAM/CNMCA L. Torrisi on-going 7.5.3Evaluate ECMWF LAM-EPS BC test data- sets for the convection-permitting scale MCH, A. Walser ARPA-SIMC, C. Marsigli, A. Montani waiting for BC availability