Modeling Forum Status Report WRAP Planning Team Meeting February 22-23, 2006 John Vimont, Mary Uhl, & Kevin Briggs, Forum Co-Chairs

Modeling Forum Projects All work handled by Regional Modeling Center –University of California Riverside –ENVIRON –Carolina Environmental Program Have instituted management tools during –Increased monthly conference call and reporting frequency –Detailed periodic reports (2004 RMC annual, 2002 Model Performance) –Plans for mid-2006 report and Final Project report by 12/06 –Modeling simulation specification sheets & coordinator (Gerry Mansell)

Modeling Forum Projects 2006 objectives –Help states get past BART modeling hurdle –Finish regional modeling for 12/2007 haze plans –Document and archive model results RMC Project has been ongoing since , plan is to conclude the project by 12/2006 – need for future RMC?

Completed Tasks Completed several modeling simulations –Base02a – actual 2002 emissions –Plan02a – actual 2002 emissions, except for Fire which used “average/representative” data –Base18a – projected growth and control of point/area/all mobile emissions, held fire, dust, and commercial marine emissions constant to Plan02a values Emissions processing – all SSJF, EF, FEJF, DEJF, TDDWG EIs to date are included –1999 Mexico EI now usable in regional model Fire sensitivity modeling – well underway, complete in 3 months Model performance – new EPA CMAQ v4.5 released in Fall 2005 CAMx PSAT – source apportionment model benchmarking and emissions processing

2006 Ongoing/Pending Tasks BART modeling support –Get everyone on a timeline –36km met data to states handling CalPuff on their own, if desired –BART modeling protocol & CalPuff runs for AK, NM, NV, SD –Others (See table following slide) – what about AZ & UT? Then, back to lots of regional modeling –Base02b, plan02b, Base18b –BART impacts across the region –Sensitivity and control strategy runs –Final runs for Technical Support System & planning support Documentation –Mid-year 2006 report –Final report 12/2006 –Archive data and results

Tom to fill in BART help status by state Step A – BART Culpability Analysis (0.5 deciview threshold) Step B – BART Engineering Analysis Step C – Visibility Benefit Analysis for estimated emissions reduction from BART application AK AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY Tribal

Regional Modeling - Future Needs Archive modeling results and data after 2006 –On-going funding? For maintaining data For limited staff support, data transfers, and question- answering –Where and other questions not discussed in any detail to date Forum is not requesting any other new projects in 2007

Regional Haze Implementation Questions Need regional modeling after 2006? –Probably, but not to the scale of the present RMC team Should the Forum work to improve modeling tools and techniques after 2006, and when? When should the Forum start gearing up for the next round of SIP review and update?