Conference on Quality in Space & Defense Industries CQSDI ‘08 Probabilistic Technology Panel: What Is Probabilistic Technology? Mohammad Khalessi, Ph.D. CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc.

 2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. 2 Y1, Y1, … Utilizes probability law to construct statistical models for Input Variables Step 1Step 3 Step 4 Step 2 Utilizes physics laws, process rules, or empirical modeling techniques to construct process/output models Probabilistic Technology is a set of advanced predictive methods that allow for integration of uncertainties into process models and evaluation of the effects Input X1, X2, …. Input PROCESS Y = f (X1, X2,…) PROCESS Output Y1, Y2, … Output Probabilistic Technology

 2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 Probabilistic Technology provides 3 metrics to quantitatively evaluate design early in the decision process when no data is available 1. Most-Probable-Points Safety control systems Certification tests Reliability demonstration tests Critical combination of parameters Most likely failure points Many more Performance level = C1 Performance level = C2 2. Probability Information Reliability, risks, failure prob. Critical failure modes ID Performance range Most-likely performance value Safety-factor calibration Many more 3. Process Sensitivity Measures Key process variables & uncertainties Guidelines to develop test plans Guidelines for inspection & repair planning Guidelines to develop improvement plans Guidelines to develop control plans Guidelines to develop monitoring plans Many more Probabilistic Technology Optimizes Design, Performance, Number of Tests and More

 2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Uncertainties significantly impact the prediction accuracy. Probabilistic Technology can accurately identify the failure location and the magnitude of failure probability. Finite element model of a fuel tank Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 0.7% Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=20% Failure Prob. = 3.5% Press COV = 10% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 1.4% Probabilistic Technology Allows for Safer and Lighter Designs

 2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved. 5 Probabilistic Technology Eliminates or Minimizes Costly Changes