Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft Bo MacInnis Institute for Social Research University of Michigan.

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Presentation transcript:

Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft Bo MacInnis Institute for Social Research University of Michigan

2 Motivations Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for Understanding education-mortality relation Curbing rising health care costs College education Steepest gradient observed Steady decline in males’ college enrollment

3

4 Education-Health Gradient BA+Some College HS< HS Ever smoked Hypertension Obesity Mental Distress Type 2 diabetes Author’s calculations from NHIS

5 Enrollment rate: females Card & Lemieux 2000

6 Enrollment rate: males

7 Education-Health Literature Instruments for college education Arkes (2001): Unemployment rate. Reduce work-limiting health conditions Currie and Moretti (2003): College opening. Increases infant’s birth weight Lleras-Muney (2002), Adams (2002): Compulsory school law. Reduces mortality; increases good health Kenkel etc. (2006): K-12 education policy. High school graduation reduces smoking.

8 Smoking & College Education De Walque (2004), Grimard & Parent (2005) Vietnam War draft: Card and Lemieux (2001) Reduce smoking initiation No evidence on smoking cessation Contributions Discontinuity research design Endogenous effect of veteran status

9 Annual Number of Inductions

10 A Quasi-Natural Experiment Pre-lottery draft: Most draftees were aged Deferments were easily obtainable College attendance Children and other family hardship High inductions Consequence for males of cohorts

11 A Quasi-Natural Experiment (cont.) Draft lottery institutionalized in 1970 Random Sequence Number (RSN) 1970 lottery for cohorts lottery for cohort respectively Much reduced inductions College deferments effectively eliminated Consequence to males of cohorts

12 Induction Risks and College Education

13 Induction Risks and Male-Female Difference in College Education

14 Treatment Exposure

15 Data National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) Personal characteristics (veteran status) Health outcomes: chronic conditions Lifestyle behaviors: smoking Body weight and height Base sample Males and females U.S. born of birth cohorts , sample size = 30,158

16 Smoking Initiation and Cessation

17 BMI Distributions: Gender & College

18 BMI Distributions: Gender & College

19 Estimation Health = b*educ + b 1 *veteran + X*B + b 2 *trend + error Linear probability model for educ, veteran, health IV for educ = male * cohorts IV for veteran = male * draft age eligibility Difference of age in 1967 and 19 (quartic terms) trend = no/linear/quadratic trend X = age, gender, race, survey year, and interactions Two-stage least square estimation

20 First Stage: College Education Spec.UnadjustedNo trendLinear trend Quadratic trend College Enrollment *** (0.0118) * (0.0179) * (0.0178) * (0.0190) College Completion ** (0.0102) ** (0.0137) ** (0.0151) ** (0.0154) sample = U.S. born males and females of cohorts ; sample size = 30,158; standard errors are in parentheses. ***, **, *: significant at 1%, 5%, 10%.

21 Estimates of the Impact of College on Morbidities Regular vs. Never ObesityHyper- tension Mental Distress Type 2 Diabetes College Enrollment ** (0.307) (0.38) (0.32) ** (0.06) 0.10 (0.14) College Completion ** (0.259) ** (0.32) (1.02) ** (0.06) ** (0.18) Sample size20,13119,14319,631 28,715 **: p <.05

22 Robustness Checks Control for linear, and quadratic trend Use various measures of induction risk as instruments for schooling and veteran Avoidance choices besides going to college Emigrate to Canada – sample selection issue Become delinquent Obtain dependency deferments

23 Canadian Emigrants & Delinquents YearMaleMale R*FemaleFemale R*Delinquents 19651, , ,4471,1813,3291, ,0321,7663,7501,78313, ,0762,8104,3302,36322, ,4053,1395,1123,74730, ,5104,2445,7143,74718, ,7783,5125,4773,51022, ,9802,7145,2783, ,1202,8545,3563,389 -

24 Live Births by Year

25 Live Births by Treatment Status

26 Marriages by Year

27 Concluding Remarks Quasi-natural experiment & RDD strong instrument for college education Return to college includes a reduction in smoking, obesity, and diabetes Policy implications Increase college enrollment/completion rates