Covariation between North Pacific climate and auklet demographic parameters at three western Aleutian islands during 1990-2008 Ian L. Jones Biology Department,

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Presentation transcript:

Covariation between North Pacific climate and auklet demographic parameters at three western Aleutian islands during Ian L. Jones Biology Department, Memorial University of Newfoundland

Due to their low trophic level, planktivorous seabirds’ demography might rapidly reflect changes in ocean productivity and zooplankton abundance Objective Measure auklet survival, productivity and chick diet at three western Aleutian Islands to look for effects of changing climate and oceanography, inferred from covariance across species, islands and years

Auklets (Auks, Alcidae Aethiini genus Aethia) Long-lived planktivorous monogamous colonial seabirds Least Auklet Crested Auklet Whiskered Auklet Smallest Eats copepods Migratory, disperses widely in winter Largest Eats euphausiids Migratory, localized in winter Intermediate Mixed diet Resident Aleutians only

Predictions If auklet demography is regulated by very large scale climate processes then Survival, productivity, diet should correlate among: auklet species different island colony sites and with climate covariates

Scale effects Survival - largest scale - measured on an annual basis, birds widely dispersed in North Pacific Productivity - more local scale, reflects conditions near colony site, during breeding season only Chick diet - during chick rearing (July) only

product of a collaboration Co-investigators Vernon Byrd, Jeff Williams, Art Sowls -Alaska Maritime NWR Alex Bond, Heather Major - grad students Fieldworkers G. Beyersdorf, K. Brenneman, J. Citta, T. Clarke, L. Cowen, A. Durand, E. Drew, B. Drummond, J. Fisher, G. Fraser, M. Grinnell, M. Hipfner, S. Hootman, A. Hunt, N. Jones, T. Joyce, P. Kappes, H. Knechtel, N. Konyukhov, S. Lantz, G. Loh, S. Lorenz, H. Major, J. Marais, G. McClelland, L. Meehan, M. Murphy, A. Nunez de la Mora, M. Ortwerth, A. Palmer, L. Parker, J. Pennell, M. Renner, H. Renner, D. Roby, N. Rojek, L. Scharf, K. Shea, E. Sommer, G. Spencer, J. Sutton, I. Stevenson, G. Thomson, A. Veit, N. Winter, J. Wade, V. Zubakin et al. Discussions John Piatt, Dan Roby, Sasha Kitaysky et al.

Three study islands (19) (8) (12) 400 nm

Buldir Kiska Kasatochi

Pitfalls Land-based predators (rats and gulls) Arduous capture-mark-recapture Replication not Climate covariates

NPI: sea level pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with pressure <100.5 kPa, anomaly from mean PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST

NPI: sea level pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with pressure <100.5 kPa, anomaly from mean PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST

NPI: sea level air pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with air pressure <100.5 kPa PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST When pressure is low and Aleutian Low is big, North Pacific near Aleutians is cool and churned up (MORE PRODUCTIVE) but also STORMIER

Main Talus LeAu & CrAu Crested Point WhAu Buldir

Kiska Sirius Point LeAu & CrAu

Kasatochi Thundering Talus LeAu & CrAu

Kasatochi October 2009 Jerry Morris photo

Kasatochi September 2009 Chris Waythomas photo

Survival Concordance across islands - Least Auklet

Survival Concordance across islands - Crested Auklet

Survival Concordance between species NOT

Survival Climate covariates - Least Auklet

Survival Climate covariates - Crested Auklet

Productivity Poorly correlated between species and islands Least Auklet Crested Auklet Productivity Year

Productivity vs Climate covariates ALPI - when Aleutian low is large, productivity is decreased

Phenology vs SST Jeff Williams

Chick Diet Year Crested Auklet Least Auklet varies across years, evidence of concordance, different auklet species feed their chicks different prey taxa Neocalanus plumchrus Euphausiid Neocalanus cristatus

Chick Diet Year Least Auklet Kasatochi varies between islands Neocalanus plumchrus Euphausiid Neocalanus cristatus Least Auklet Buldir

Conclusions (tentative) Least and Crested Auklet survival was correlated across islands 400 nm apart during Survival seems to vary with large-scale climate indices in all three auklet species, ALPI Productivity was less correlated among islands and species, but seems to vary with large-scale climate indices in all three auklet species, ALPI Future analyses will focus on comparison of patterns of all of survival, productivity and diet across islands and auklet species

North Pacific Research Board United States Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Memorial University of Newfoundland Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Northern Scientific Training Program Funding acknowledgements