Policymakers & Trade Legislation. Robert Lawrence

Surveys: An Opportunity to explore  Good Theory: Occams Razor: Requires Tractability.  Good Empirical Work: Requires good theory and structure.  Good Survey’s: Opportunities to explore

What is Trade Policy  Conventional framing: Tariff changes.  Narrow Economic Interests.  Trade policy today:  Agreements:  Multi-Issue.  Rules

Demand & Supply of Trade Policy  Demand  Supply constituent preferences Interest groups/parties Policymaker preferences Institutions Economic Environment

Constituent Preferences  Economic Interests: Consumption benefits. Factor ownership.  Other Values: (Equity, Identity, Community)  Knowledge Formation.  Risk Aversion

Interest-Groups/Parties  Organizing to influence: Costs of Collective Action. Benefits. Instruments:  Money.  Persuasion.  Information/Media  Organization.  Alliances

Policy-Makers  Preferences: Personal Interests. Institutional/Organizational Constituent Interests. General Interests.  Perceptions.  Symbolism.

Institutions  Trade-Making Authority. USA vs EU  Source of Power.  Elections: Districts, Party Discipline, Frequency.

Perceptions,  International trade: gets credit and blame. Trade votes: not only about trade: e.g NAFTA, China PNTR. Level Playing Field

Policies,  Costs of Policies Change:  --e.g. environmental rules.  Other regulations.

Process: Only Game in Town?  Changing constraints on domestic policies.  Changing policy agendas. Winners& losers in process  Changing responsibilities for trade and domestic policies. legislative committees, regulators.  Changing relationships to international institutions.  Interest groups respond.  Legislators respond. 

Implications.  Ask about effects on interests but also perceptions and process.  Role of money versus knowledge.  Ask how decisions are made as well as why.  Explore relationships between positions and preferences.