Migration and Housing Christine Whitehead Emeritus Professor in Housing Economics LSE BG/LSE London ‘Immigration and Asylum in Britain’ LSE 5th November 2015

Housing requirements of migrants Total numbers: ‘ According to recent ONS projections, the UK population will increase by 9.7 million over the next 25 years, reaching 73.4 million people in mid Half of this increase will come as a result of international migration’; Different from other sources of population growth – births are within households; those living longer also already have their own home; Where they come from: immigration roughly similar between EU and non- EU – different housing experiences? Why do they come? - very different housing needs for students, dependents, working age, asylum; How old are they? – concentrated among younger age and child bearing groups How long do they stay? Implications for household formation.

Who is Coming In? 2005 to 2015 (year ending March 2015)

For What Reason? 2005 to 2015 (year ending March 2015)

Stylised facts about household formation and housing requirements Initially form fewer households than similar indigenous groups but after 5 years those from richer countries more similar; after 10 generally very similar; Equally initially consume less housing than the equivalent local household; Initially go into the private rented sector (74% in Q1 2015) Also to other peoples homes and student accommodation; Those from richer countries then are more likely to enter owner- occupation – but overall lower rates of homeownership (43% in Q1 2015) Proportions of foreign born in social housing similar to those for indigenous population - but no EU migrants have very limited rights for some years unless refugees; So matters a lot who leaves again and when – those from richer countries more likely to leave.

Impacts on House Prices Foolish to suggest that increasing population and households will not affect prices, given slow supply adjustment - but the effects are probably not as great as the media in particular suggest; Our own research for MAC suggested that there was some upward pressure on house prices and rents simply from the increase in population and households – but this was small; Great deal of interest in reports that migration reduces house prices – but answering a different – more local question – suggests demand from other groups declines – so pressures elsewhere; Also it may not be a traditional migrant story – but more one of international investment - including people buying a holiday or study home; But equally evidence that international investment can increase supply.