Living Longer: Challenges and Opportunities for Aging Societies Nancy Morrow-Howell Bettie Bofinger Brown Professor of Social Policy, George Warren Brown School of Social Work Director, Harvey A. Friedman Center for Aging

World Population Pyramids 1950-2100 The situation is summed up very nicely in pictures of AGE PYRAMIDS over time. So this is an age pyramid----shows us what percent of population is in a certain age range. So in 1950, 14% under 5 and a very small percent over 80. Fast forward to 2050 (when you will be mid-50ish), 6% under 5 and a whole lot more over 80. Right now, there are more people over 60 than under the age of 15. The pyramids are shifting, they are becoming rectangles. More old people, fewer young people. You are inheriting a few “top-heavy” society. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011)

Demographic Revolution It is global ‘rectangularization of the age pyramid” Some areas not blue in 2050, why not? HIV not yet in control, lack of public health and health care, civil strife, few human/women rights NOW THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES FOR YOU! The rapidly aging world. (a) The world today, showing in blue areas where greater than 20% of the population is over the age of 65. (b) The world in 2050, showing the huge increase in areas where the population will be over 65 years old. Petsko Genome Biology 2008 9:113   doi:10.1186/gb-2008-9-12-113 Each society has its own demographic shift going on, so very much a geographic thing These are sculptures reflecting age pyramids of several countries. Mathieu Lehanneur I show you these and ask---why the different shapes of the age pyramids. Civil war, a good economic time, a natural phenomenon……..all possible BUT MORE GENERALLY, demographers track three forces Source: HelpAge International. Global AgeWatch Index. (2014)

Three Forces Fertility Rates Mortality Rates Immigration Rates How many people born in a given geographic area in a given time period, actual and estimates How many people die……………. And how many people move in and out, come across borders into the geo area in that time, and what are there ages Let’s look at each at the global and then national level Fertility Rates Mortality Rates Immigration Rates

Influencing population aging Not sure about best title, but thought this might be an option for your immigration bullet.

We are having fewer children Birth rate…..down. And projected to stay down lowest birthrates in europe, taiwan, korea US not as low, we are holding in close to the replacement rate----- 2.1, meaning a couple has enough kids to replace themselves During the last several decades, the world has experienced profound changes in fertility. Between 1970-1979 and 2000-2007, the median level of total fertility in the world fell by more than half, from 5.6 to 2.4 children per woman. Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2012). World Fertility Report.

We are living longer Japan Singapore Chile United States Thailand Chad 1975 2000 2012 Japan 75.1 81.1 83.2 Singapore 70.3 78.1 82.2 Chile 65.4 76.8 79.7 United States 72.7 76.7 78.8 Thailand 61.9 71.0 74.2 Chad 43.4 46.7 50.8 Swaziland 51.0 48.7 48.9 http://datatopics.worldbank.org/hnp/popestimates Source: The World Bank, Population Estimates and Projections, 2014 Source: World Bank. (2014). Population Estimates and Projections.

Projected increase between 2005 and 2030 by age Fastest growth of population is the OLDEST OLD As demonstrated by this figure, we can expect a 400% increase in centenarians by 2030. Several studies have come to the same conclusion as (xxxx) found that half of all children born in western countries today will live to be 100. Projected increase between 2005 and 2030 by age Source: United Nations. (2005). World Population Prospects.

Global Age Watch Index Challenges Income Health Environments Capability

Active Ageing The process of optimizing opportunities for health, participation, and security in order to enhance quality of life as people age.

Policy Framework for Active Ageing

Roles of research universities Much to learn from each other

We are aging at different rates Number of years for population age 65+ to increase from 7% to 14% While every society around the world is aging, the rate at which they are aging, that is the speed, is quite different. For example, it took over a century for those 65+ to increase from 7% to 14% in France. This is in a stark contrast to Singapore, which will take approximately 19 years. Source: National Institute on Aging. (2007). Why Population Aging Matters: A Global Perspective

We are living with age-related disabilities for different periods of time Country Life expectancy at birth (yrs) Healthy life expectancy at birth (yrs) Gap Nauru 79 66 -13 Belize 75 63 -12 Dominica USA 70 -9 Japan 84 Singapore 83 76 -7 China 68 Source: World Health Organization. (2014). Life Expectancy Data by Country

Cross-national Research “There is a need to raise awareness about not only global aging issues but also the importance of rigorous cross-national scientific research and dialogue that will help us address the challenges and opportunities of an aging world.” -U.S. National Institutes of Health

Harvey A. Friedman Center for Aging Global Aging Initiative

Kick-off Meeting at IAGG’s World Congress June 2013 | Seoul, South Korea Over 60 scholars participated 28 organizations and institutions represented | 16 McDonnell Academy universities Collaboration with McDonnell International Scholars Academy Refer to meeting summary (handout) Includes four students from WU and the Chancellor and Jim.

Global Aging 2013 Funding Ten awards for pilot projects and partnership development Each collaboration includes at least one PI from Washington University and one from a McDonnell Academy Partner Institution Principal Investigators are from: Reference handout of funded projects Washington University Fudan University National University of Singapore Florey Institute of Neuroscience & Mental Health Peking University Chinese University of Hong Kong Tsinghua University Universidad de Chile Universidad de los Andes-Colombia The University of Hong Kong Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya Luleå University of Technology

Transdisciplinary Research

Educating students about longer lives

Workforce for an Aging Society Need more professionals in healthcare, social work, business, law, engineering, and many other fields that understand issues related to older adults & aging society. Response of many institutions, including universities, is required.

It’s personal. It’s professional. It’s your future: transform it. US THEM It’s personal. It’s professional. It’s your future: transform it.