THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL PART 20E: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DISASTER RESILIENCE Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

FRAMEWORK 1 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

FRAMEWORK 2 A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER- DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FOR THE END GAME OF DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21 ST CENTURY

A DISASTER is the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., global climate change,..,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the community is not ready.

THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting) COMMUNITIES RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM 7 + BILLION ( DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) GOVERNMENT DWELLINGS SCHOOLS HEALTH CARE FACILITIES BUSINESSES INFRA- STRUCTURE ETC

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES DROUGHTS ETC.

POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of Realistic Urban Plans, Building Codes & Standards Monitoring and Timely Early Warning Timely Emergency Response (including Evacuation and Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE CONTINUUM IS DIFFERENT THE CAUSATIVE EFFECTS OF UN- NATURAL GREEN- HOUSE GASES HAPPEN ON VERY DIFFERENT SCALES THAN THOSE OF A TECTONIC PLATE, A SUBDUCTION ZONE, THE EYE OF A STORM, A REGION, ETC.

HOWEVER, THE SAME FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS PERSIST IGNORANCE APATHY DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

EVEN SO, EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE PREPARED FOR ANY PERCEIVED INTERSECTION WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF- RESILIENCE AND, PERHAPS, ITS VERY EXISTENCE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC,... AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

THE END GAME CHALLENGE: BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES INNIVATIVE ACTIONS: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS FLOODS SEVERE WIND STORMS EARTHQUAKES …ETC A DISASTER CAUSES FAILURES IN POLICIES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES BEST POLICIES BEST PRACTICES DISASTER RESILIENCE

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONEBTIALLY AS --- a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased, b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.

INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS USE PLANET EARTH’S GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A BASIS FOR PREPAREDNESS FROM “A” (Monitoring and Mitigation) TO “Z” (Adaptation)

OBSERVATIONS Reduced fresh water for a large portion of humankind that presently obtains its fresh water from glacier-fed rivers

GLACIAL RETREAT: BALAIS, SWITZERLAND

GLACIAL RETREAT: GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, MONTANA

GLACIAL RETREAT: COLOMBIA

DECREASING ICE THICKNESS AT QUELCAYA, PERU

SHEPHARD GLACIER: 1913 (LEFT) AND 2005 (RIGHT)

GRINNELL GLACIER: 1938 (LEFT) AND 1991 (RIGHT)

OBSERVATIONS: ANTARCTICA

OBSERVATIONS: GREENLAND

GREENLAND Greenland's glaciers are melting into the sea twice as fast as the previously calculated rate of four miles per year. This faster rate, if continued in concert with similar observations in the Himalayas and South America, makes predictions of how quickly Earth's oceans will rise over the next century questionable and probably inaccurate.

EMERGING GLOBAL PERCEPTIONS Worldwide rise in sea level. Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (“The Atlantic Conveyor Belt”). Increased severity of windstorms. Larger storm surges in seasonal hurricanes and typhoons. Prolonged droughts in some regions and heavier precipitation in others.

NORTHEAST USA: 1 METER RISE IN SEA LEVEL

ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION The Atlantic Conveyor Belt keeps Europe from becoming a deep freeze in the winter. Ancient sediments, ice cores, and fossils indicate that the Atlantic Conveyor Belt shifted abruptly about 8,200 years ago, when a sudden cooling occurred.

ATLANTIC CONVEYOR BELT As a result, the land temperature in Greenland dropped more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit within ONE OR TWO decades, an effect that could prove disastrous for Europe.

CORRAL BLEACHING FROM TEXAS TO TRINIDAD

CORAL BLEACHING Ocean temperatures that are too warm stress corals, causing them to expel symbiotic micro-algae—their food supply-- which lives in their tissues. As a result, the reefs appear bleached. Bleaching that lasts longer than a week can kill corals. One of the significant long-term eco- nomic impacts is on the fishing industry.

BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES MONITORING (USE MODERN “GEOS” TECH- NOLOGIES TO MONITOR UN- NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECTS

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures MITIGATION (ADDRESS THE FRONT END OF THE UNNATURAL GREENHOUSE PROBLEM)

Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ADAPTATION (ADDRESS THE BACK END OF THE UNNATURAL GREENHOUSE PROBLEM, ACTING AS IF SOCIETAL IMPACTS WILL HPPEN.

MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MITIGATION ADDRESSES THE “FRONT END” OF THE PROBLEM. IT INCLUDES ACTIONS TO REDUCE PERCEIVADVERSE HUMAN INTERACTIONS ADAPTATION ADDRESSES THE “BACK END” OF THE PROBLEM. IT INCLUDES ACTIONS THAT WILL SAFE- GUARD A PERSON, A COMMUNITY, A BUSINESS, OR A NATION WHEN THE ANTICIPATED OR PREDICTED IMPACTS ACTUALLY HAPPEN

ADAPTATION:THREE GORGES DAM IN CHINA

ADAPTATION: THAMES RIVER, LONDON

ADAPTATION IN THE NETHERLANDS: KEEP THE NORTH SEA OUT

ADAPTATION IN JAPAN: THE G-CANS PROJECT

JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION JAPAN IS ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE WATER FROM RISEING SEA LEVEL, OCEAN STORM SURGES, TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP, AND EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION FROM TYPHOONS. ITS “G-CANS PROJECT” HAS CREATED MASSIVE UNDERGROUND CONCRETE RIVER CHANNELS IN NORTHWEST TOKYO THAT FACILITATES MOVEMENT OF EXCESS WATER AWAY FROM TOKYO.

JAPAN: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION JAPAN HAS INSTALLED UNDERGROUND PUMPS THAT CAN PUMP 100 TONS OF WATER PER SECOND BACK OUT INTO THE HARBOR TO PREVENT FLOODING OF CTY STREETS. BUT, IF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY CONSIDERED TO BE OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY NOW, IS IT ENOUGH?

ADAPTATION IN NEW ORLEANS: A NEW SYSTEM OF LEVEES

" Heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to increase in frequency and intensity.”

"Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity.”

“Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase.”

The cold season storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

“ By the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years now will likely be taking place every five years.” y the end of this century rainfall amounts expected to occur every 20 years could be taking place every five years. Such an increase "can lead to the type of events that we are seeing in the Midwest," said Karl, though he did not directly link the current flooding to climate change.

Soil amplification of earthquake ground shaking is likely to be more pervasive over larger areas.

Landslides triggered in earthquakes and/or rainfall in hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are likely to be more extensive.

The effects of tsunami wave run up are likely to be more extensive.

Comprehensive emergency response, a key part of disaster resilience, will be more difficult to plan and implement in the future.