Procedures for Wind resource assessment and their impact on the levelized cost of Energy (based on the MEGAVind cost model), Head of Section Hans E. Jørgensen,

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Presentation transcript:

Procedures for Wind resource assessment and their impact on the levelized cost of Energy (based on the MEGAVind cost model), Head of Section Hans E. Jørgensen, DTU Wind Energy & Lars Landberg Group Leader, Renewables. Strategic Research and Innovation DNV GL – Group

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Motivation What is the relation between the economy of a wind farm project and uncertainty? Is it really necessary to use development expenses (DEVEK) and how are these related to the Levelized Cost of Energy LCOE?

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Some definitions

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Vesterhav syd (an example) 20 x 10 MW 1031 GWh

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Production based on mesoscale models 22 submission: Location: Høvsøre Level : 100 m 1 year, 10 min averages of U and D Reference Høvsøre mast Production estimates: ± 15 %

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Assumptions AEP input 1031 ;FixedAEPinputPrYear [GWh] CAPEX 1.50 ;TurbinePriceSimple [M€/MW] ;FoundationPriceSimple [M€/MW] ;ElecInfraPriceSimple [M€/MW] ;OtherInfraPriceSimple [M€/MW] :AssembInstalPriceSimple [M€/MW] OPEX input 0.02 ;OPEX cost €/kWh Capital input 25 ;NYears 0.30 ;EquityPCT [fraction] 0.05 ;RateDebt [fraction] 0.12 ;RateMarket[fraction] 0.03 ;RateRiskFree [fraction] 1.70 ;CompanyRiskProfile [fraction] 0.30 ;TaxRate [fraction] 0.02 ;Inflation Fraction --- Wind farm 20 ;Number of turbines ;HubHeight [m] 10.0 ;RatedPower [MW] ;Diameter [m] 0.90 ; AEPlossFactor DEVEX input 20.0 ;DEVEX cost M€ 3 ;OffsetYearsDEVEX

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Economical constraints DSCR has to be 1.3 based on the P90 production estimate (over 10 year) The P90/P50 ratio determines the size of the debt i.e the ratio between Equity and Debt combined with the DSCR of 1.3 Assume calculations give E:ratio of 30 %

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” LCOE as function of Equity ratio Increase the Devek with 10 Meuro (tower offshore) Decrease uncertainty from 12% to 7 % equals Equity from base case 30% to 25%

DTU Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark Add Presentation Title in Footer via ”Insert”; ”Header & Footer” Summary The uncertainty of a project determines the amount equity you need to put in your project and vice versa also determines how big the senior debt can be (loan with a very low interest rate). Measurements on location is necessary to reduce the uncertainty and even if the tower cost 10 Meuro this can be paid back over 3-4 years on Vesterhav syd. Highly qualified consultants can be of large value for the economics in a project