California Energy Commission Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Prices and Fuel Economy Energy Demand Cases and Forecast of Vehicle Attributes for 2015 Transportation Energy Demand Art Rosenfeld Hearing Room September 30, 2015 Bob McBride Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division

California Energy Commission Overview Why truck attributes? Six types of trucks and six fuels Three vehicle price cases and fuel economy cases Three fuel price scenarios, three economic scenarios Sources of data for truck price and fuel economy Fuel economy and vehicle prices proposed for revised transportation energy demand forecast 2

California Energy Commission Why Truck Attributes? Fuel consumption of each truck depends on its fuel type and fuel economy. Market penetration of fuel types is an input to the Freight Energy Demand Model. Argonne National Lab’s Truck 5 models will be used to forecast truck fuel type market penetration, given vehicle price, fuel price, fuel economy, and infrastructure barriers. 3

California Energy Commission Truck Gross Weight, Type, and Rated Classes Gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) 3: 10,000 to 13,999 pounds GVWR 4 to 6: 14,000 to 25,999 pounds GVWR 8 COMBO: >33,000 pounds California day cab combination (8 combo) GVWR 7 & 8 SU and 7 COMBO: >26,000 pounds single unit (SU), and 26,000 to 32,999 pounds combination GVWR 8 IRP: >33,000 pounds Interstate (International Registration Program [IRP]) sleeper combination GVWR 8 WASTE: >33,000 pounds refuse and recycling loader 4

California Energy Commission Six Fuels, Six Drive Types Diesel Electricity Ethanol (E85) Gasoline Compressed natural gas (CNG) Liquefied natural gas (LNG) Diesel Diesel-electric hybrid Electric Ethanol (E85) Gasoline/FFV Spark or compression ignited natural gas 5

California Energy Commission Three Demand Cases 6 Low Demand Case High Vehicle Price High Fuel Economy High Fuel Price Reference Demand Case Reference Vehicle Price Reference Fuel Economy Reference Fuel Price High Demand Case Low Vehicle Price Reference Fuel Economy Low Fuel Price

California Energy Commission Low Attribute Scenario Is Adjusted Reference & High Attribute Scenarios ARB Mobile Sources’ EMFAC2014 model accounts for EPA Phase 1 rules, affecting model years (MY) 2014 to 2018 Fuel economy impact likely due to vehicle improvements Low Attribute Scenario EPA/NHTSA proposed phase 2 GHG and fuel economy rules apply to MY 2019 to 2027 Estimated cost and fuel economy impact of EPA/NHTSA proposed phase 2 GHG and fuel economy rules are incorporated into low attribute scenario Fuel economy impact likely due to drivetrain and vehicle improvements 7

California Energy Commission How do Truck Attributes Influence Market Adoption of Truck Fuel Types? 24 month payback for technology choice Truck price and the cost of fuel as the biggest influences on payback period Dozens of technologies to increase fuel economy, and half a dozen fuel types available Argonne National Lab’s Truck 5 model simulates a fleet manager’s choice 8

California Energy Commission Class 3 Pickup or Van 9

California Energy Commission Truck Prices for Class 3 Pickups and Vans 10

California Energy Commission Fuel Economy Class 3 Pickups and Vans (MPGGE) 11

California Energy Commission Class 4 to 6 12

California Energy Commission Truck Price Class 4 to 6 Diesel, CNG, Diesel-electric Hybrid 13

California Energy Commission Truck Price Class 4 to 6 Gasoline & Electric 14

California Energy Commission Fuel Economy Class 4 to 6 Diesel, CNG, Diesel-electric Hybrid 15

California Energy Commission Fuel Economy Class 4 to 6 Gasoline & Electric 16

California Energy Commission Trucks Over 26,000 pounds 17

California Energy Commission Truck Price, Interstate Class 8 Sleeper Cab 18

California Energy Commission Fuel Economy, Class 8 Interstate Sleeper Cab (MPDGE) 19

California Energy Commission Truck Price, Class 8 Refuse/Recycling Truck 20

California Energy Commission Fuel Economy, Class 8 Refuse/Recycling Truck (MPDGE) 21

California Energy Commission Sources Sierra Research EPA/NHTSA Proposed Phase 2 GHG and fuel efficiency rule California Air Resources Board, Emission Factors model (EMFAC2014) California Department of Motor Vehicles UC Davis ITS, Next Steps, Exploring the Role of Natural Gas in U.S. Trucking, February

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Bob McBride Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /