Household Projections for Wales Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee 6 th March 2014

Outline Background Impact of 2011 Census Methodology 2011-based Household Projections - Results

Background Household Projections –Based on other demographic projections –Indicate outcome of assumptions based on current trends –Not policy based –Households not dwellings (housing demand not supply)

Background Methodology used in Wales –Based on population projections for Wales –Census data used to calculate projected household population –Census data used to project trends in household types – based on membership method –Household types based on size of household and presence of children (marital status not used)

1 person4 person (no children) 2 person (no children)4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 child)4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 3 person (no children)5 + person (no children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 child)5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3 person (1 adult, 2 children)5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) Household Types

Recent History Local authority-level population and household projections developed –2006-based household projections – June 2009 –2008-based household projections – September Census –Taken - 27 March 2011 –First results - 16 July 2012 –Factored into LA Population Projections – July-Sept 2013 –Detailed household results obtained - October 2013

Impact of 2011 Census Initial Results for Wales: –Population 3.063m (0.9% higher than projected) –Households 1.302m (2.5% lower than projected) –Average Household Size 2.30 (projected 2.23) –Communal Establishment population 52,000 (20% higher than in 2001)

Percentage Change in All Households, England and Wales

Percentage Change in One Person Households

Percentage Change in Lone Parent Households

Percentage Change in Households with no children, Wales

Percentage of Household Population in 1 Person Households by Age, Wales

Percentage of Household Population aged by Household Type, Wales

Percentage of Household Population aged by Household Type, Wales

Percentage of Household Population aged by Household Type, Wales

The Membership Method Formula: where h i = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group pop agi = population in age and gender group ag in year i comm agi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i y agti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i size t = household size for type t

Household Population Total Population minus Communal Establishments Population Data on Communal Establishments from 2011 Census Number aged under 75, Proportion aged over 75 held constant

Membership Rates Two point exponential model: where i = the year y i = membership rate in year i k = 1 if y2011 ≥ y if y2011 < y2001 a = y2001 – k b = (y2011 – k)/(y2001 – k) x i = (i – 2001)/(2011 – 2001)

Age Bands

Variant Projections Based on available variant population projections: –High variant: high fertility and low mortality –Low variant: low fertility and high mortality –Ten-Year Average Migration variant –Natural change only/zero migration variant

What’s Changed since 2010? Update of population- and household projections based on 2011 Census Ten-Year Average Migration variant Wales = Sum of Local Authorities (no 2011-based NPP)

2011-based Household Projections for Wales First set to incorporate results of the 2011 Census –In underlying population projections Population base – 2011 mid-year estimates (MYE) based on the Census Assumptions based on MYE for which had been revised to take account of the 2011 Census –In household formation assumptions –In communal establishment population assumption

2011-based Household Projections for Wales Results

Projected Households for Wales, Principal Projections

Projected Households, Wales, by Variant and Base Year

Projected Households by type for Wales, Principal Projection

Projected Average Household Size, Wales

Projected Households by Local Authority, Wales,

Projected Households by type, Wales, 2011 and 2026

Future Releases ‘Further Results’ Excel file New version of HOUSEGROUP WALES? Household Estimates

Population and Household Projections for Wales Further information: