Mike Awadis Senior Vice President FirstSouthwest Company 1620 26th Street, Suite 230 South Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone: 310.401.8060

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Presentation transcript:

Mike Awadis Senior Vice President FirstSouthwest Company th Street, Suite 230 South Santa Monica, CA Phone: Single-Family Financing Essentials The Agency TBA Market NCSHA 2016 HFA Institute

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. Disclaimer This presentation is intended for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information provided in this presentation was obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, it is not guaranteed to be correct, complete, or current, and is not intended to imply or establish standards of care applicable to any attorney or advisor in any particular circumstances. The statements within constitute FirstSouthwest’s views as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This presentation represents historical information only and is not an indication of future performance. 2

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. 3 TBA Production Trends Over 35 state HFAs use some sort of TBA execution in their programs Since July 2012 representing 11 state HFAs and over $8 billion in locks CY 2015 new mortgage originations of over $4.5 billion Average daily new mortgages are up over 50% in the last 12 months. 4th QTR new mortgages are up over 100% compared to the same period in 2014

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. 4 TBA Program Benefits When Compared to MRB Provides a no risk forward commitment mortgage program with no costs of issuance, negative arbitrage and legal expenses (outsourced) Produces a significantly lower mortgage rate when compared with Pass-Thru and traditional MRB structures – including using zeros Fund down payment and closing cost assistance without using HFA funds Flexibility to adjust rates as the market moves -- no yield implications Affords HFAs the option to pay higher lender compensation Can be used to provide financing for non-first time homebuyers Program is more lender friendly -- less paperwork for the lender Can be combined with MCCs thus creating a lower effective mortgage rate Gives HFAs the option of offering refinances Significantly more profitable for HFAs than tradition MRBs and Pass-Thru structures both on present value and ongoing basis It can be used as a tool to accumulate MBS for future bond transactions Either “Pass-thru” or “Traditional MRB” structures HFA has the option to repurchase its MBS at prevailing TBA levels

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TBA (Mortgage-Backed) Securities Market Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- debt obligations The most common form of MBS are pass-through certificates MBS are highly liquid -- particularly those backed by agency guarantees Most mortgages in the US are securitized through the agency MBS market This trading convention significantly improves agency MBS liquidity – leading to lower mortgage rates for households The key distinguishing feature of agency MBS is they carry a form of government guarantee – explicit (Ginnie Mae) or implied (Fannie and Freddie) Other distinguishing feature is the existence of liquid forward market for trading “TBAs” or “To Be Announced” are a form of future contracts 5

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TBA (Mortgage-Backed) Securities Market – continued Vast majority of MBS trading (over 90%) occurs in the forward market – TBA Market Seller and buyer agree to a sale price without identifying the specific pool numbers Six basic characteristics -- issuer, maturity, coupon rate, price, par amount and settlement date are agreed upon Pools guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (a federal government agency), Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac (GSEs) can be allocated to TBA transactions The goal of the TBA market was to create liquidity A hedging tool – with settlement dates up to nine months out -- allows lenders to “lock in” sale prices for loans  The use of dollar rolls allows the seller to extend hedges Drivers of market activity are broker dealers 6

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TBA (Mortgage-Backed) Securities Market – continued TBA trading occurs electronically on an over-the-counter basis  Two platforms, DealerWeb (interdealer trades) and TradeWeb (customer trades)  Trades can also take place via telephone, fax or – not common Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) has specific rules regarding what constitutes TBA eligible deliveries also knows as “good delivery” Only mortgages meeting certain size and credit quality criteria “conforming mortgages” are eligible for inclusion Sheer aggregate size and the homogenous nature of agency MBS contribute significantly to liquidity – compared to corporate bonds or munis TBA Market is the largest debt market in the world outside of US Treasuries Virtually every primary broker/dealer on the street and in the world makes a market in TBA MBS 7

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TBA (Mortgage-Backed) Securities Market – continued TBA Market is made possible largely because agency MBS are exempt from the registration requirement of the Securities Act of 1933 Although not required, agencies do publicly disclose information about the composition of each pool Similar to Treasury futures, TBAs trade on a “cheapest-to-deliver” basis On a forty-eight-hour day, the seller selects which MBS in its inventory will be delivered to the buyer at settlement In practice, most TBA trades do not ultimately lead to a transfer of physical MBS  In most cases the seller will either unwind or “roll” an outstanding trade 8

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. Liquidity 9

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. Specified Pools A smaller but significant portion of agency MBS trade outside of the TBA market Known as “Specified Pool”  The identity of the securities to be traded is specified at the time of trading  Some of these pools are typically not eligible for TBA trading  Backed by loans with more favorable prepayment characteristics – allowing them to achieve higher prices Factors impacting pricing for specified pools today  Supply demand technicals and the volume of available MBS – GN1/GN2 swap  Interest rate environment – less demand in a rising rate market CRA buyers make up an important segment of the “specified” pool market 10

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. TBA Market Snapshot 11

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. Spreads Between Ginnie I and Ginnie II 12

©2016 First Southwest Company. All rights reserved. Pricing Sensitivity 13