Climate Impacts and the Research-Policy Interface Summary of Insights from the GCPC 2015 meeting in New Delhi Sonja Klinsky

Recognizing the Diversity of Adaptation Source: John Colvin, GCPC 2015, New Delhi

Theme 1: Learning Across Fragmentation Due to diversity of local adaptation efforts and needs, very specific and context specific lessons, Despite multiple attempts to develop ‘lessons’, ‘best practice’ ongoing challenges – How measure success (and how determine what has NOT been successful) when goals vary Facilitating short-term adaptation Longer term resilience to shocks Long term transformative adaptation – How appropriately share lessons across contexts?

A task for academics …..

2. Connecting Mitigation and Adaptation Scholars Adaptation and resilience offer many theoretical and practical insights about how change happens (or can be supported) Tend to be more context specific, greater attention to politics, power and social aspects than much mitigation research Explicit attention to theories of change – In scaling up: recognition of non-linear ‘scale up’, multiple avenues for learning and connecting – Many different elements and drivers of change recognized for individuals, communities, institutions, cultures etc.

Loss and Damage from the Science Side – New developments in Probability Event Attribution Very larger ensembles of computing power, able to statistically determine probabilities Possible to determine the probability that a particular extreme event was changed because of climate change – To date, these studies have been ad hoc and not designed to inform global policy By default much more study in developed countries in areas near research centers (EU, Australia, US) Led to calls for thinking seriously about how to generate interest and support for a more coherent effort to do such studies in a globally targeted way

Loss and Damage from the Legal Side Ongoing discussions in UNFCCC – Challenge of ‘compensation’ and liability in the negotiations – Would a ‘solidarity and support’ frame work better? Options for legal action outside UNFCCC – Country to country ‘cessation and reparation’ claims, but multiple barriers (finding standing, clarity of causation, establishing damages etc) – Use of human rights law if human rights have been damaged (similar barriers to above) – Use domestic law and legislate claims in own jurisdiction Recognition of learning, and narrative creation through use of legal instruments, even when not ‘successful’

Relationships between Law and Science? Does improved probabilistic event attribution change the legal scene? – Past analogies with tobacco and other uses of probabilistic evidence in legal causation decisions? – What kinds of options are there for private sector fiduciary responsibility through stronger probabilistic science?

Thank You Disclaimer: This is a summary of discussions amongst multiple people. I have tried to portray it accurately but may have failed. I neither claim credit the useful parts, nor blame any misrepresentations on others. – Key Experts included: Fredericke Otto; Lavanya Rajamani; John Colvin; Indrani Phukan Sonja Klinsky Arizona State