Asian Air Pollution Export and Aerosol-Regional Climate Interactions Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Yao-Sheng Chen Air Quality Forecasting Laboratory Dept.

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Asian Air Pollution Export and Aerosol-Regional Climate Interactions Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, and Yao-Sheng Chen Air Quality Forecasting Laboratory Dept. of Marine, Earth and Atmos. Sci., NC State Univ., Raleigh, NC Presentation at the 7 th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 6-8, 2008 Carey J. Jang and Sharon Phillips Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, the U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC

Presentation Outline Introduction Introduction Case Studies Case Studies –Intercontinental Transport over Trans-Pacific Horizontal Flux Analysis Horizontal Flux Analysis Process Analysis Process Analysis Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on US Air Quality Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on US Air Quality –Regional Climate-Air Quality Interactions over East Asia Direct Feedbacks Direct Feedbacks Semi-direct Feedbacks Semi-direct Feedbacks Indirect Feedbacks Indirect Feedbacks Summary Summary

AsiaN. America Europe Boundary layer Free troposphere liftingsubsidence Tropopause “Direct” intercontinental transport Mixing 2 km Intercontinental Transport: uplifting of PM to troposphere/subtropical jet stream Source: Jacob et al., 2004 Mechanisms for Intercontinental Transport Between Northern Midlatitude Continents boundary layer advection

Intercontinental Transport over Trans-Pacific  Modeling Tool U.S. EPA’s Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version ×74 horizontal grid cells with 108- km horizontal grid spacing 16 layers (surface to ~16 km)  Meteorology Mesoscale Model MM5 (V3.6)  IC/BC GEOS-CHEM  Emission Inventory -- North America U.S.: NEI (1999) Projected to 2001 & Biogenic EI System BEIS-3 Canada: 1995 EI & BEIS-3 Mexico: 1999 Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) Study & BEIS-3 -- Asia/China Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) and Aerosol Characterization Experiment over Asia (ACE-Asia) 2000 EI  Simulations Baseline with PA: 01, 04, 07, and 10 in 2001 Sensitivity: zero Asian man-made emissions  Measurements Surface: Met: NCDC, CASTNET, STN, SEARCH, NADP Chem: Japan, China, main US networks Satellite: NO 2 (GOME), CO (MOPITT), TOMS/SBUV TOR, AOD (MODIS)

Performance Statistics (NMB, %) for Surface Predictions U.S. Mo Max 1-hr O 3 (ppb)Max 8-hr O 3 (ppb) PM 2.5 (  g m -3 ) AIRSCASTNETSEARCHAIRSCASTNET SEARCHIMPROVESTNSEARCH Jan Apr Jul Oct Mo Max 1-hr O 3 (ppb) SO 2 (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) PM 10 (  g m -3 ) Jan Apr Jul Oct Mo CO (ppb) SO 2 (ppb) NO (ppb) NO 2 (ppb) SPM (  g m -3 ) Jan Apr Jul Oct ChinaJapan

Evaluation of Column Predictions Month AODNO 2 ColumnCO ColumnTOR Jan Apr Jul – Oct Obs Sim NO 2 TORAOD Performance Statistics (NMB, %)

O3O3 Layer 12 (~5 km)Layer 1 (surface) NO x PAN HCHO Horizontal Fluxes of Gaseous Species (  g m -2 s -1 ) 8.4 m/s 3.1 m/s

PM 2.5 SO 4 2- NO 3 - Layer 12 (~5 km)Layer 1 (surface) OC Horizontal Fluxes of PM Species (  g m -2 s -1 ) 8.4 m/s 3.1 m/s

X-Z Cross-Sections between °N of Horizontal Fluxes of Gas/PM 2.5 Species (  g m -2 s -1 ) Gases PM HCHO O3O3 NO x PAN PM 2.5 SO 4 2- NO 3 - OC

Process Analysis-IPR, April, 2001 East Asia Pacific Ocean U.S. O 3 (Gmoles/day)PM 2.5 (Ggrams/day)

Total Air Pollution Export From Asia and Into U.S. SpeciesExport/Import 1 April Spring Baseline Sensitivity Difference 2 (Baseline- Sensitivity) Import Into US Liang et al. (1998) O 3 (Gmole day -1 ) TotalExport_Asia TotalExport_US NO x (Gmole day -1 ) TotalExport_Asia TotalExport_US NO y (Gmole day -1 ) TotalExport_Asia TotalExport_US PM 2.5 (Ggram day -1 ) TotalExport_Asia TotalExport_US TotalExport_Asia-total export out of the PBL over Eastern Asia; TotalExport_US-total export out of the PBL over the U.S. 2 Difference-net export/import due to the Asia anthropogenic emissions.

Enhancement of Gas and PM 2.5 species in April 2001 due to Asian Anthropogenic Emissions in the West (Red) and East (Blue) U.S.

MM5/CMAQ vs. WRF/Chem and Aerosol Feedbacks over China Period: 1-31 Jan./Jul Domain: 164 × 97 grid cells Horizontal resolution: 36 km Vertical resolution: 30 layers (up to 50 mb) Emissions: –U.S. EPA SED-JES –Sea salt: online calculation Meteorology IC and BC: –NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Chemical IC and BC: –CMAQ Gas-phase chemistry: –CBM-Z Aerosol module: –MOSAIC Cloud chemistry module: –CMU Scenarios: –Met; Met+Gas; Met+Gas+PM+Cld. Aq. Data for model evaluation: – China/NCDC: T, RH, WS, Precip, PM, API – Japan (2078 sites): T, RH, WS, SO 2, NO 2, CO, O 3, PM – China (a few sites): PM 2.5 and Air pollution indices – MOPITT: CO – OMI: NO 2 – TOMS: Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) – MODIS: AOD

Aerosol Direct Effects on Shortwave Radiation and Photolysis Direct Effects on NO 2 Photolysis PM 2.5 Mass Absolute Difference PM 2.5 decreases shortwave radiation and NO 2 photolysis over most East Asia in Jan/Jul Direct Effects on Shortwave Radiation Jul Jan

Aerosol Semi-Direct Effects on PBL Meteorology PBL Height 2-m Temperature PM 2.5 MassAbsolute Difference PM 2.5 slightly decreases 2-m temperature; PM 2.5 decreases PBL height in larger area in Jul than in Jan Jul Jan

Aerosol Indirect Effects on CCN and Precipitation CCN (S = 1%) Changes in Precipitation PM 2.5 Mass Higher CCN concentrations over larger areas in East Asia in Jan Dominancy of suppression of precipitation in East Asia in Jul Jul Jan

Summary Major Trans-Pacific Transport Mechanisms Major Trans-Pacific Transport Mechanisms –Strongest export for O 3, PAN, HCHO, and NO 3 - at 25-45º N in the LFT –Strong export for CO, O 3, PM 2.5, SO 4 2- at the mid-latitude in the PBL Relative Importance of Atmospheric Processes Relative Importance of Atmospheric Processes –Transport, chemistry, and dry depo are important for O 3 –Emissions, aerosol/cloud proc., and transport are important for PM 2.5 Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on US AQ Impact of Asian Anthropogenic Emissions on US AQ –Total export: 0.1 Gmoles/day of O 3 and 0.5 Ggrams/day of PM 2.5 –Increases background O 3 in the WUS by ~1 ppb (~2.5%) in monthly average, and up to 2.5 ppb in daily average –Increases background SO 4 2- in the WUS by 0.4  g m -3 (~20%) in monthly average, and up to 1.0  g m -3 in daily average Aerosol Feedbacks to Regional Climate Aerosol Feedbacks to Regional Climate –PM 2.5 decreases shortwave radiation and NO 2 photolysis –PM 2.5 decreases 2-m temperature and PBL height –PM 2.5 enhances CCN formation and suppresses precipitation

Acknowledgements  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s ICAP Project, NASA Award No. NNG04GJ90G and NSF Career award at NCSU  Andreas Richter, the University of Bremen, Germany, for providing GOME NO 2 data; Hilary E. Snell, AER Inc., for processing MOPITT CO and GOME NO 2 ; Jack Fishman and John K. Creilson, NASA Langley Research Center, for providing TOR  Alice Gilliland and Steve Howard, U.S. EPA, for providing observational data from national networks over U.S. and the Fortran code for extracting data from observations and CMAQ; Shaocai Yu, U.S. EPA, for providing Fortran code for statistical calculations  Jiming Hao and Ke-Bin He, Tsinghua University, China, for providing the observational data in Beijing, China  Takigawa Masayuki, the Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan, for providing the codes for the extraction of Japan data