NCHELP Spring Conference June 8, 2010 Is There Life After FFELP? Mark Weadick Managing Director Student Loan Capital Strategies LLC.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION SERIES 2008 TRENDS IN Student Aid.
Advertisements

FFELP Capital Markets Update NCHELP Spring Meeting May 15, 2012 Mark Weadick Student Loan Capital Strategies LLC.
Cost of Education – a Significant Factor Affecting Enrollment Prepared by: Elaine L. Rivera August 2009.
The Rising Price of a College Education Sandy Baum Michael McPherson Skidmore College & The Spencer Foundation The College Board The College Board College.
A Framework to Understand College Access and Affordability at the National, State and Institutional Levels TAIR Conference 2008, Galveston Trish Norman,
1 College Financing Seminar Presented by: The Massachusetts Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators (MASFAA)
Trends in Higher Education Series 2014For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org. PRICES.
Presentation to the Montana Board of Regents September
2010 Northwest Ohio Manufacturing Forum & Expo Jeremy Gutierrez November 12, 2010.
U.S. Syndicated Loan Market Review
The University Budget Debora Obley Associate Vice President
Fall Class Agent Meeting Friday, September 25, 2009 Testa Science Center Atrium.
Financial Plan Overview Andrew M. Cuomo, Governor Robert L. Megna, Director of the Budget July 2011 New York State Division of the Budget.
Trends in Student Aid 2014For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org. Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans in 2013 Dollars (in Millions), to.
Financial Issues in Higher Education Dr. David F. Finney.
©2010 Iowa Student Loan Liquidity Corporation® New Challenges, New Solutions Helping Iowa Students and Families in Changing Times.
Financial Markets Chapter 12.
IFC International Forum on Investment in Private Higher Education Washington DC, January 22-23, 2004 Creating Alternatives for Student Financing: Comparative.
Financial Aid National Council of Higher Education Loan Programs (US) “NCHELP represents a nationwide network of guaranty agencies, secondary markets,
Student Loan and Consumer Debt Markets Outstanding
CDFIs and Affordable Housing Presentation to the North Carolina Affordable Housing Conference: “Housing Works” Donna Fabiani | September 17, 2010.
Student Loans and Capital Markets Thomas M. Graf Executive Director MEFA December 5, 2008.
1 Navigating Today's Lending Market Tom Detienne David Woida Investors Community Bank NorthMarq Capital 860 N. Rapids Road 325 N. Corporate Drive, # 180.
Slides by Pamela L. Hall Western Washington University 1 Financing a College Education Chapter 15.
FFELP Funding – What’s It All About? Scandal, Cuts, and Marketplace Conditions Steven Brooks Executive Director, State Education Assistance Authority Wrightsville.
Delinquency: The Untold Story of Student Loans Alisa Cunningham Vice President for Research and Programs Gregory S. Kienzl Director of Research June 2,
Sandy Baum Higher Education Policy Analyst Professor of Economics Emerita, Skidmore College AGB March 2010 Colleges and Students in Difficult Economic.
Trends in Higher Education Series Trends in Higher Education Series 2005, October 18, Ten-Year Trend in Funds Used.
Trends in Higher Education Pricing & Student Aid October 11, 2011 Al HermsenPaul Schroeder Sr. Director – Student Financial AidSr. Educational Manager.
Published College Prices: How fast are they rising?
January 2006, Budapest Additionality of Guarantee Schemes for Agricultural and Rural Development: Lithuanian Experience Danguolė Čukauskienė Director,
© 2012 Cengage Learning. Residential Mortgage Lending: Principles and Practices, 6e Chapter 3 Role of Residential Mortgage Lending in the Economy.
The Perfect Demographic Storm: Extending the Benefits of Higher Education to the Next Wave of Students MASFAA Conference November 15-17, 2006 Julie Shields-Rutyna.
1 State of the Big Three: Presentation to the United Auto Workers Stephen J. Girsky December 3, 2008
Higher Education Today Increasing stratification, separate and unequal tiers In many ways reinforcing, and in some ways widening, inequality  Political.
Total Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans Used to Finance Postsecondary Education Expenses in 2011 Dollars (in Millions), to SOURCE: The.
HOW DO I PAY FOR COLLEGE? FUNDING SOURCES “When it comes to saving for college, many parents and families don’t know where to start—and when they do, they.
1 © 2006 Federal Association of Financial Services. All Rights Reserved. AMERICAN FINANCIAL AID Student Loan – The American Borrower Module.
Student Debt Susan Choy MPR Associates Berkeley, California SHEEO Professional Development Conference Seattle, August 2005.
Ten-Year Trend in Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans per FTE Used to Finance Postsecondary Education Expenses in Constant 2009 Dollars, to
TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION SERIES Trends in College Pricing and Trends in Student Aid 2009 OCTOBER 20, 2009.
The Future of Student Aid Sandy Baum Skidmore College and The College Board MASFAP March 2009.
Student Loan Summit Jackson, Mississippi May 22, 2008.
1 Private Student Lending 101 May, iHELP provides Private Student Loans for undergraduate and graduate school, and consolidation loans for graduates.
TRENDS IN HIGHER EDUCATION SERIES Trends in College Pricing and Trends in Student Aid 2009 March 2,
College Board TRENDS IN STUDENT AID Total Aid Awarded $134.8 Billion Graduate & Undergraduate 51% or 69 Billion in Loans (FFELP and Direct) –Undergrad.
Trends in Student Aid 2015For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org. Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans in 2014 Dollars (in Millions), to.
Trends in Student Aid 2013For detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org. Total Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans Used to Finance Postsecondary Education.
Trends in Higher Education Series Trends in Student Aid 2007.
Lease-to-Purchase Housing Finance in Chile: Context, Past Experience, Future Opportunities & Challenges Conference: Expanding Housing Finance to the Lower.
Copyright © 2004 by Thomson Southwestern All rights reserved. 5-1 Credit Unions and Savings Institutions Chapter 5.
SME Securitisation March, Footer June 9, 2016.
President Jill Tiefenthaler. Myth #1 You no longer need a college degree to be successful.
Trends in Higher Education SeriesFor detailed data, visit: trends.collegeboard.org The Starting Point Published prices have been rising rapidly. Increases.
December Town Hall Tuition Planning Presentation FY17- FY20 December 3, 2015.
Dan Weaver Assistant Commissioner July 26,
Higher Education Landscape: Recent Trends in Federal and Private Student Loans Moderator: Timothy D. Kaiser, Director and Senior Counsel, Discover Financial.
Average Published Charges (Enrollment-Weighted) for Full-Time Undergraduates by Sector,
Education Accounts for Just 2% of All Federal Spending
Trends in Higher Education Series
Trends in College Pricing 2017
Amanda Scheler, AVP/Campus Relations Manager, PNC Bank
Trends in College Pricing 2018
Unconventional Monetary Policy, Interest Rates and Asset Prices
Education Funding is Well Below 2011 Level in Inflation-Adjusted Terms (Department of Education Discretionary Funding in Billions of Dollars) IN BOOK.
Trends in Higher Education Series
Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans in 2013 Dollars (in Millions), to
Average Published Charges for Full-Time Undergraduates by Sector, (Enrollment-Weighted)
Student Aid and Nonfederal Loans in 2014 Dollars (in Millions), to
Presentation transcript:

NCHELP Spring Conference June 8, 2010 Is There Life After FFELP? Mark Weadick Managing Director Student Loan Capital Strategies LLC

Student Loan Sector: Significant Dislocation 2 Both Legislation and Credit Crisis have had major impact College Opportunity & Affordability Act passed in 2007 –Significantly reduced economics of all FFELP originations –Consolidation loans became uneconomic ABS market access and economics impacted since August 2007 Health Care Bill eliminates FFELP lending July 1, 2010 Industry concentration has increased due to exit of many players Private loan originations have fallen by approximately 50%

Student Loans are Major Component of Student Aid ________________________________________________ Source: CollegeBoard. Figures include both undergraduate and graduate student aid. +7% 4-Year CAGR +10% (7%) +4% +3% +5% (1%) Sources of Student Aid ($ in billions) 3

Federal Government will Lend $90B Annually ________________________________________________ Source: CollegeBoard. Figures include both undergraduate and graduate student aid. ($ in billions) Sources of Student Loans 4

Relative Stock Price Performance Price Performance of Student Lenders (52.8%) (82.8%) (76.3%) (87.7%) 11/7/06: Congressional elections 4/15/07: Flowers / SLM announcement 11/15/07: College Opportunity & Affordability Act passed 1/25/08: Formal termination of JC Flowers / SLM 8/6/09: $1.4bn STU TALF securitization ________________________________________________ Source: FactSet, Capital IQ and press releases. Market data as of April 12, /7/08: The Education Resources Institute (TERI) bankruptcy filing 5/7/09: $2.6bn SLM TALF securitization 1/29/10: STU announces restructuring of Citi Omnibus Credit Facility 3/22/10: Reconciliation passes which eliminates FFELP 5

Valuation Perspectives Price / Tangible Book Value Forward P/E (NTM) (1) 0.44x 1.63x 2.37x 0.91x ________________________________________________ Source: Capital IQ. Consensus estimates per Reuters. Market data as of April 12, (1)FMD earnings estimates no longer tracked by research analysts after August No research analyst coverage or earnings estimates available for STU. 7.9x 8.4x Valuations have fallen dramatically due to reduced government subsidies and concerns about funding access and cost 6

ABS Markets Have Shrunk Dramatically Source: Thomson Reuters Bloomberg, SIFMA. (1) Primarily includes commercial finance loans, CLOs, equipment leases, aircraft leases, manufactured housing, and timeshare loans. ($ in billions) (1) Student Loan ABSTotal ABS Market (ex-TALF) 7

FFELP ABS Spreads » FFELP ABS spreads have tightened dramatically since the credit crunch though still elevated » Recent European turmoil has caused some widening of spreads » A new tax-exempt LFRN market brings attractive financing costs and financing for long duration assets 8

Federal Student Loan Market Size Source: US Department of Education, Federal Budget Request 2011, as of 9/30/09 9 Outstanding Federal Student Loans: Total $653 B Top 10 Holders of FFELP Loans

Who holds Student Loan Collateral? Loan Programs: $750 BFunding Source: $750 B Dollars in Billions, SLCS estimates as of September 30,

Federal Loan Market Takeaways? Pace of Industry consolidation will quicken – Several businesses and portfolios are for sale – High levels of “stuck” collateral on BSs and in “busted” financings – How many states/nonprofits will liquidate or wind down? Federal Loan servicing – 5 primary federal servicers; ACS, Great Lakes, Nelnet, PHEAA and SLM – Reconciliation: nonprofit’s may service up to 100,000 DL accounts – Overall service levels expected to decline – While legacy FFELP systems be supported? Keys to future FFELP/DL success – Access to capital, e.g. deposit funding – Scale & Integrated business model 11

Student Enrollment Trends Projected Total Enrollment For-profit education has grown rapidly over the past 10 years and is expected to outpace traditional not-for profit growth – for-profit enrollment estimated to reach over 2 million by fall of 2013 Full-Time vs. Part-Time Private: Not-For-Profit vs. For-ProfitOver-25 vs. Under-25 (Students in millions) Source: College Board, US Department of Education and Wall Street Research. CAGR: 0.9% Part-Time CAGR: 1.27% Full-Time CAGR: 1.74% Under-25 CAGR: 1.23% Over-25 CAGR: 1.61% Not-For-Profit CAGR: 1.29% For-Profit CAGR: 9.14% CAGR: 2.3% 12

Tuition Pricing Trends For-profit tuition increases have been significant and have tracked broader education trends In-StateOut-of-State Private: Not-for-ProfitPrivate: for-Profit CAGR: 6.5% CAGR: 5.0% CAGR: 6.1% CAGR: 6.0%CAGR: 4.4% CAGR: 5.5% CAGR: 6.4% CAGR: 5.9% Source: US Department of Education and Wall Street Research. CAGR: 5.2% CAGR: 6.0% 13

The Need for Private Loans Remains High Average Cost of Private Not-for-Profit 4-Year Average Cost of Private For-Profit 4-Year Average Cost of Public 4-Year FreshmanSophomoreJuniorSeniorAnnual Maximum ________________________________________________ Source: CollegeBoard and Wall Street research. Funding Undergraduate Stafford Loan LimitsPell Grants Tuition and Fees school year school year Growth: 15% CAGR: 3% Growth: 20% CAGR: 4% 14

Post-secondary Education Funding Sources Over 50% of post-secondary education is funded through grants and loans Average American Family Parent Contributions from Borrowed Sources (16%)Student Contributions from Borrowed Sources (23%) Source: Sallie Mae and Gallup. 15

Private Loan Market Overview DynamicsSize of Market (1) Key Players Today » Only a handful of institutions are originating loans » Non-TALF ABS market is very challenged: Long-tail nature of assets Unsecured Limited performance data Poor performance history » Lack of competition is facilitating lender friendly terms Higher FICO scores Co-borrowers required LIBOR+8 to10 pricing More ABS friendly terms likely over time » Loans are currently non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, there is an active political debate on this topic » Schools will remain the primary distribution channel due to certification issues and asset quality concerns Loan Originations ($ in billions) ________________________________________________ (1)Source: CollegeBoard. CAGR (through ’07-’08): 24.5% Credit Unions 16

Recent Private Loan Securitizations Private Loans Municipal Private Loans 17

Private Student Loan Market Takeaways $10B+ demand for private loans, with good growth potential Primary distribution channel will be school “certified” Lender “brand” will be increasingly important to borrowers Securitization markets for private loans will remain challenged – Long loan terms very difficult to finance – Subordinate tranches very challenged – Small market size and uneven performance data – Paradoxically, municipal markets are open for state/nonprofit issuers As such, private market likely to become more concentrated – Market size will not support multiple players – Lender “brand” and deposit funding are key attributes 18