Food Security and Poverty Alleviation Under Changing Environmental conditions: Challenges and Opportunities in Sudan International Syposium December 2011 Location Elfatih Tour, Khartoum, Sudan Food Security and Poverty Alleviation Under Changing Environmental conditions: Challenges and Opportunities in Sudan International Syposium December 2011 Location Elfatih Tour, Khartoum, Sudan 26 January 2016 Amel Mustafa Mubarak and Salah Mohamed Elawad Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Khartoum, Sudan

2 Contents (Part 1)

3 Contents (Part 2)

Resources - Land Agric sub-sectorArea (m fed.)% share Irrigated Mechanized rain-fed Traditional rain-fed Total Total arable land: 200 m fed 40 m fed (20%) currently under crop Agriculture (3 sub-sectors) food / cash crops: Average (Source MoAF)

5 Problem Statement Series of development plans and programmes The main Characteristics of Agriculture High cost of production Low productivity Aggravated by the civil war Frequent incidence of drought. þInadequate and high cost of farm credit Poor soil and Water management Problems inhibited Agricultur al G rowt h 1 32 Low and fluctuating production

Agricult Agricultural Productivity Source: derived from data of the MoAF

Agricultural Productivity Source: FAO data

Comparison of Cotton Yields (kg/fed) (lint) System/Country90/9194/9500/0101/02 Egypt (irrigated) Mali (rain-fed) World Average Sudan (irrigated) Source: Abdeen M. Ali

(av 1992/93-08/09) Research Yields Farmer Yields (av 1992/93-08/09) Crop Research Yields Farmer Yields Yields on Farms as Proportion of Research Yields (kg/fed) (percent) Sorghum Groundnut Sesame Source: ARC data/ MoAF

Increasing agricultural production : Increasing agricultural production : - expansion of land - expansion of land necessitates analyzing the economic and environmental costs necessitates analyzing the economic and environmental costs - investment in agricultural technologies - investment in agricultural technologies often limited by financial constraints often limited by financial constraints

The possibility of increasing production through improving technical efficiency by better use of farmers’ available resources and technology is another option. The possibility of increasing production through improving technical efficiency by better use of farmers’ available resources and technology is another option.

Literature on Efficiency in Sudan reveals that technical efficiency in the overall Sudanese agriculture is low. Literature on Efficiency in Sudan reveals that technical efficiency in the overall Sudanese agriculture is low. Sorghum in western Sudan (0.65) (Mohamed et al., 2008 Sorghum in western Sudan (0.65) (Mohamed et al., 2008 Sesame in Kordofan State (0.72) (Mohamed et al., 2008a) Sesame in Kordofan State (0.72) (Mohamed et al., 2008a)

Given the importance of wheat as one of the important food crop and its contribution to food security in Sudan and as an import substitute, in 2008 the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Khartoum conducted many researches at M.Sc. level under the theme wheat technical efficiency to measure and evaluate the technical efficiency of wheat production in different areas in Sudan Given the importance of wheat as one of the important food crop and its contribution to food security in Sudan and as an import substitute, in 2008 the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Khartoum conducted many researches at M.Sc. level under the theme wheat technical efficiency to measure and evaluate the technical efficiency of wheat production in different areas in Sudan

Objectives of the study: The overall objectives of this study are to: - measure and evaluate the technical efficiency of wheat production in different areas in Sudan. -and to determine the major factors that affecting or constraining the technical efficiency of wheat production.

Research methodology: Sources of Data: Sources of Data: Primary and secondary data will be used to fulfill the objective of the study. Primary data collected by mean of a questionnaire, 54 tenants were interviewed. The primary data included basic information about the socio-economic characteristic, area of the tenancy, location of the tenancy, agricultural practices, etc. Primary and secondary data will be used to fulfill the objective of the study. Primary data collected by mean of a questionnaire, 54 tenants were interviewed. The primary data included basic information about the socio-economic characteristic, area of the tenancy, location of the tenancy, agricultural practices, etc. Secondary data collected from different institutional sources. Secondary data collected from different institutional sources.

Data analysis: The objectives of this study will be achieved by using the Stochastic Frontier Production (SFP) model. Stochastic frontier production analysis is method of estimating frontier function involving the use of econometric and thereby measuring the efficiency of production. Economic efficiency is generally defined as the ability of a production organization to produce a well–specified output at the minimum cost. In our study two models will be used:

Efficiency model: This model includes the tenant’s factors affecting the tenant technical efficiency for wheat production. Stochastic production frontier model of the Cobb-Douglas form will be used. The model is written as follows: This model includes the tenant’s factors affecting the tenant technical efficiency for wheat production. Stochastic production frontier model of the Cobb-Douglas form will be used. The model is written as follows: lny i =β o + β 1 *D 1 x i1 + ∑ β j lnx ij +v i -u i lny i =β o + β 1 *D 1 x i1 + ∑ β j lnx ij +v i -u i J=1 J=1

Inefficiency effect model: As mentioned above in the tenants model, u i in the stochastic production frontier model is anon negative random variable, associated with the tenants' technical inefficiency in production and assumed to be independently distributed, such that the technical in efficiency effect for the i th tenant, u i, will be obtained by truncating (at zero) of the normal distribution with mean, μ i, and variance, δ 2, such that As mentioned above in the tenants model, u i in the stochastic production frontier model is anon negative random variable, associated with the tenants' technical inefficiency in production and assumed to be independently distributed, such that the technical in efficiency effect for the i th tenant, u i, will be obtained by truncating (at zero) of the normal distribution with mean, μ i, and variance, δ 2, such that μ i = δ 0 +∑ δ s Z s μ i = δ 0 +∑ δ s Z s

Efficiency model: lny i =β o + β 1 *D 1 x i1 + ∑ β j lnx ij +v i -u i Inefficiency model μ i = δ 0 +∑ δ s Z s J=1

Source : unpublished M.Sc. theses at Department of Agricultural Economics AuthorRegion Mean Technical Efficiency El Moez Abdel AllahGezira Scheme (2008)0.73 Hamza Mohamed White Nile Pump Scheme (2008) 0.69 Hassan HusseinRahad Scheme (2009)0.70 Rama Abd ElkarimNorth of Gezira (2011)0.69 Uthaila Abd ElrazigCentral Gezira0.63 Manal OsmanNorthern State Table 1: Wheat Technical Efficiency in Different Region in the Sudan

These researches have shown that the mean technical efficiency of producing wheat ranging between o.63 and 0.73(Table 1) and that each region had unique factors that constraining wheat production. This mean that wheat production could have been increased by percent at the same level of inputs had farmers been technically efficient. These researches have shown that the mean technical efficiency of producing wheat ranging between o.63 and 0.73(Table 1) and that each region had unique factors that constraining wheat production. This mean that wheat production could have been increased by percent at the same level of inputs had farmers been technically efficient.

Factors affecting efficiency Number of irrigation. Number of irrigation. Timing of finance Timing of finance working time in the field. working time in the field. Sowing date Sowing date varieties varieties educational level. educational level. skill skill

These study recommends that technical efficiency in the Sudanese agricultural sector needs to be improved by enhancing labor skills. That requires more effective extension services besides employing more advanced farming practices and improved seeds. These study recommends that technical efficiency in the Sudanese agricultural sector needs to be improved by enhancing labor skills. That requires more effective extension services besides employing more advanced farming practices and improved seeds.

Based on this background, further assessment and elaboration on the efficiency issue in different agricultural crops at different region in the Sudan is needed in order to reflect its particular importance and the benefits of exploiting the available and limited resources in the Sudanese agriculture to the policy makers and all concerned people with objective of Improved resource use efficiency. Based on this background, further assessment and elaboration on the efficiency issue in different agricultural crops at different region in the Sudan is needed in order to reflect its particular importance and the benefits of exploiting the available and limited resources in the Sudanese agriculture to the policy makers and all concerned people with objective of Improved resource use efficiency..