NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update A look back at summer and a preview of fall

2 8 th warmest August and 2 nd warmest on land 11 th warmest year-to-date 8 th warmest August and 2 nd warmest on land 11 th warmest year-to-date ENSO La Niña conditions return ENSO La Niña conditions return September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar Arctic Sea Ice: August average sea ice extent was the 2 nd smallest on record, according to the NSIDC. Image shows September 13 update. Currently second smallest extent on record, could approach record from Arctic Sea Ice: August average sea ice extent was the 2 nd smallest on record, according to the NSIDC. Image shows September 13 update. Currently second smallest extent on record, could approach record from 2007.

2 nd Warmest Summer Nationally 2.4 degrees F warmer than average Four states were record warm TX had warmest summer of any state ever 2 nd Warmest Summer Nationally 2.4 degrees F warmer than average Four states were record warm TX had warmest summer of any state ever Drier than Average Summer Record dry summer in TX Record wet summer in CA & NJ Drier than Average Summer Record dry summer in TX Record wet summer in CA & NJ 3 September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar

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2011 Short- Term Drought Ranking as of July 31 Dark red: worst in 100 years Yellow: tenth worst Dark blue: 50 th %ile Worst Short-Term Droughts by Location (and % of state where it’s worst) 2011: 4.05” 2011: 86.8 F Driest consecutive 12-month periods on record (non- overlapping) 13.69” Oct 1955 – Sept ” Feb 1917 – Jan ” Sept 2010 – Aug 2011* 15.50” July 1924 – June 1925 *Oct 2010 – Sept. 13, 2011 (estimated): 10.08”

Normal Texas rainfall Western edge: 8-12” Eastern edge: 50-60” Spring wildfires: dried remnants of lush grassy growth from previous summer Late summer wildfires: dried undergrowth in wetter half of state combined with extremely drought-stressed forests Desperate cattle have left rangelands bare, limiting fire danger in open areas

Wildfires –Enhanced fire danger with strong winds and low humidity (today through Saturday) –Short term rain reduces ignition risk –Catastrophic fires possible with strong cold fronts or low pressure systems –Greatest danger: forests in central and eastern Texas Winter wheat planting, October-November –Panhandle and west-central Texas –Winter forage for cattle Spring agriculture, February-April –Need topsoil moisture –Vulnerable to drought without deep moisture Water supplies –Low demand in winter –Shortages to re-emerge in late spring

DEPTH surface 450m 10 September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar La Nina is back

11 September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar

New U.S. Hazards Outlook Format: 3-7, 8-14-days GIS, Layers, Shape and KML data available for ease of use 12 September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global)): Billion dollar U.S. weather disasters: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: Climate Portal: U.S. Drought Monitor: Texas State Climatologist: Texas Drought Preparedness Council: uncil/stateDroughtPrepCouncil.htm uncil/stateDroughtPrepCouncil.htm 13 September 15, 2011 Monthly Climate Webinar