Futures and WEAP Annette Huber-Lee Stockholm Environment Institute

Futures and Scenarios: Why? To gain a better understanding of the implications of certain decisions (or non- decisions) across scales and particularly for those with little voice (the poor and ecosystems) To support decision-making

Driving Forces Demographic More people Urbanization Older Economic Growing integration of global economy Social Increasing inequality Persistent poverty Cultural Spread of values of consumerism and individualism Nationalist and religious reaction Technological Computer and information technology Biotechnology Miniaturization Environmental Increasing global stress Local degradation Some remediation in richer countries Governance Global institutions Democratic government Role for civil society in decision-making …but important exceptions

Consider Sources of Uncertainty Ignorance Understanding is limited Surprise The unexpected and the novel can alter directions Volition Human choice matters

Who are the actors? Government Private sector Civil society Public Or? Rich farmers Poor farmers Urban users Environmentalists Or?

SCENARIOS

Forecast and Backcast ? ? Where is society going? forecast backcast Where do we want to go? How do we get there?

Repulsor Positive Images Negative Images Current State Attractor Sideswipes Past Present Future Driving Forces Choice Human Scenario Dynamics

One possible story…

One Scenario Tool: WEAP

Guiding Principle Supply and demand must balance for sustainability

WEAP and Planning Provides a common framework and a transparent set of data that can be explored by all stakeholders and decision-makers Scenarios can be easily developed to explore options for the future Implications of various policies can be evaluated

Can do High level planning at local and regional scales Demand management Water allocation Infrastructure evaluation Cannot do Sub-daily operations Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost minimizations or social welfare maximization) WEAP Capabilities

Uses of WEAP Policy Research –Alternative Allocations –Climate Change –Land Use Change –Infrastructure Planning Capacity Building Negotiation Stakeholder Involvement

5 Main Views Menu bar Program Structure

Click and drag to create a new demand site Schematic View

Data for the demand sites is displayed numerically and graphically Data View

Results View Results can be displayed in a number of formats and scales

Favorite charts can be selected to give quick overviews Overview View

Select any part of the tree to enter notes about assumptions and references Notes View

Data can be at the level of a site, or disaggregated to any level of detail Entering Demand Data

Irrigation Livestock Mining Industrial Commercial Ecosystems Domestic Total Water Demand Major Cities Demand Sectors

Agriculture Industry Municipal Cotton Rice Wheat... Electric Power Petroleum Paper... South City West City... Irrigation... Cooling Processing Others Single Family Multi-family... Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient... Kitchen Bathing Washer Toilet... SECTOR SUBSECTOR END-USE DEVICE Illustrative Demand Structure

Use the time series wizard or expression builder Building Expressions

Rivers Groundwater –storage capacity –max monthly withdrawal –natural recharge Diversions Reservoirs Other sources (e.g. desalination) Supply Information

Read-from-file Method Historical or synthetic data Import from ASCII files Expressions Using wizards User-defined functions Simplified Water-Year Method Describe a series of water year types from very dry to very wet Enter the water year sequence Hydrology

Inactive Zone Buffer Zone Conservation Zone Top of Inactive Top of Buffer Top of Conservation Total Storage Flood Control Zone Reservoir Operations

Specify capacities, efficiencies, and other properties of power generation Hydropower

Linking supply and demand Return flows to surface or ground water or treatment plants WEAP Network

Demand Priorities Supply Preferences Allocation Order Priority System of Allocation

Integrated water resources planning system GIS-based, graphical drag and drop interface Dynamic links to spreadsheets & other models Model-building tool – user-created variables and modeling equations WEAP Highlights

Let’s start!