The teacher labour market in 2016 Professor John Howson Director TeachVac

Seminar presentation to the UCET conference – November 2015

Recruitment – what we expect in 2015 Key figures: Do we expect that recruitment meets: NCTL Allocations Teacher Supply model Less than Teacher supply model number Subjects in bold have had TSM number for 2016 reduced – only mathematics had it increased

Recruitment meets NCTL Allocations Probably no major subject will reach this number

Recruitment meets Teacher Supply model Physical Education History – will beat TSM but not reach allocations Computer Science – depending on numbers that turned up Chemistry – should be close to TSM number

Key figures: Recruitment number Less than Teacher Supply Model number for 2015 Art Biology – but may be close Business Studies Design & Technology English Geography Mathematics – but close to TSM Music Physics Religious Education

Recruitment in Languages is difficult to predict from published data, but We expect it to be close to Teacher Supply Model number

Consequences for the labour market in 2016

Recruitment where no problems expected in 2016 based upon 2015 recruitment round data on advertisements From TeachVac Art – TSM too high? History – but effect of humanities may not be fully compensated for Physical Education Languages

Recruitment may be a problem in some parts of England in 2016 Biology Chemistry English Mathematics Music

Recruitment issues could arise anywhere and may be severe in London and East of England in 2016 Computer Science Design & Technology Business Studies Religious Education Geography

GroupITTNumber left% left Art Science English Mathematics Languages IT Design & Technology Business RE PE Music Social Sciences Geography History ITT pool numbers as of 25/10/15

Recruitment – subject graphs

And what for 2017?  Message from government is EBacc including Computer Science is what matters  Unless economy experiences severe downturn and graduate recruitment declines ITT recruitment patterns may not alter  Government may do more – marketing has an effect; earlier TV campaign than last year  Fees v Bursaries – what of salaried route into teaching?  More school based training: fewer HEI places? Teach First part of core numbers for 2016 recruitment: implications?

SEPTEMBER 2015 UCAS DATA PLACE D CONDITION AL PLACED HOLDI NG OFFERALL OFFERS ALL APPLICANT S% offerCOND OFFER PLACE D ENGLAND %11%51% NE %8%53% YH %11%55% NW %8%58% EM %9%56% WM %6%57% EE %15%47% L %16%39% SE %12%53% SW %10%55% 42420

Data on 2015 recruitment in September & on 2016 published numbers

SEPTEMBER 2015 UCAS DATA PLACED CONDITION AL PLACED HOLDING OFFER ALL OFFERS ALL APPLICANTS% offer % COND OFFER Age Grou pPlaced 21 under %9% 21 und er58% %10%2259% %10%2357% %12%2455% %12% % %12% % %13%40+39% all ages %11% all ages51%

NCTL ALLOCATION S East Midlands East of EnglandLondonNorth East North West South East South West West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Grand Total TSM Number Art & Design Biology Business studies Chemistry Classics Computer Science Design & Technolog y Drama English Geograph y History Maths MFL Music Other Physical Education Physics Religious Education TSM17687 Grand Total

NCTL % ALLOCATIONS East Midland s East of EnglandLondonNorth EastNorth WestSouth EastSouth West West Midlands Yorkshire and the Humber Art & Design5%10%19%4%16%14%10%11%10%100% Biology8%10%18%4%14%16%7%11% 100% Business studies9%11%17%5%18%15%5%10%11%100% Chemistry7%10%19%3%11%18%8%11%12%100% Classics0%5%56%0% 33%0%5%0%100% Computer Science5%5%8%19%3%14%18%7%14%10%100% Design & Technology8%9%18%4%13%17%7%13%11%100% Drama5%6%22%1%19%16%10%14%6%100% English8%10%17%4%13%17%7%11%12%100% Geography8%11%16%5%13%17%5%12%13%100% History8%10%14%4%14%18%7%10%14%100% Maths7%9%18%4%14%17%8%12%11%100% MFL7%10%19%3%14%17%9% 12%100% Music7%9%23%3%15% 11%9% 100% Other7% 24%1%17%18%5%14%6%100% Physical Education9%8%15%4%17%15%9%13%10%100% Physics7%10%18%3%13%20%8%11% 100% Religious Education6%8%19%4%19%15%7%13%10%100% Grand Total7%9%18%4%14%17%8%11% 100%

English – an example