ENVS 189—Intro. To Systems Thinking

Policy Insensitivity Cartoon “Solutions” to a problem may not solve the problem and actually make the problem worse

There are a few sensitive points where you can exert effective leverage, but they may not be where you expect them

Delayed feedback cartoon There is a time delay between cause and effect. This prevents us from knowing how the immediate outcomes of our actions will effect us later.

Slow Systems Response Cartoon A system can change in slow and imperceptible ways

Lighted arrows cartoon The future is not more of the past. So, past experiences don’t always apply to solving future problems. The future is not more of the past

Elephant Sufi Cartoon The more that the parts of a problem come into focus, the more difficult it may be to identify what the whole problem is.

Definition of a System SYSTEM -- a collection of individual parts (people, policies, etc.) that work together as a whole.

Definition of ST SYSTEMS THINKING How we view and work with complex systems by looking for and understanding patterns of inter-relationships between the parts of the system.

No numbers and computers Systems thinking has nothing to do with numbers or computers

THE BEST SYSTEMS THINKERS ARE: Intuitive (right brain dominant) people People exposed to Zen and other Eastern philosophies Mystery category (something you once all were)

Fixes that Backfire Fixes that Backfire Why is it that, in complex systems, the more we try to solve the problem, the worse the existing problem can become or even new problems are created? My examples: Bacterial Outbreak at Mass. General Hospital Wells in Africa Your examples-??

The Policy Insensitivity Continuum WORST BEST Existing problems Improvement become worse and/or I is less than new problems are anticipated created

There are many reasons for this. Leverage Points--1 Systems don’t behave the way we intend them to because they are insensitive to traditional ways we try to alter their behavior. There are many reasons for this. The first two involve leverage points: places in the system where a small change in one thing can produce big changes in everything.

We look for them in the symptom of the problem. Leverage points--2 There are a few leverage points that will solve the problem. But they are hard to find because they are not where you would expect them to be. We look for them in the symptom of the problem. But, instead they are found in the underlying causes of the problem.

Symptoms vs. Causes-1 Systems Thinking Helps You Uncover The Leverage Points in a Complex System. It helps you discover the deep, underlying causes of a problem, not just the outward superficial systems.

Symptoms vs. Causes-2 So why are we drawn to the symptoms, where there are no leverage points, rather than to its underlying behaviors, where there are leverage points? Symptoms: Shout-- display prominent results are short-term and compelling provide immediate gratification (political implications) demand “local” attention Underlying causes: Whisper--display subtle results are long- term and persistent provide delayed gratification cut across departmental or agency boundaries

Unintended Consequences When we treat the symptoms rather than the causes, we get: UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Examples: Traffic on Shelburne Road Ski Bindings

This is the short-term, quick fix solution UC—Shelburne Rd--1 Shelburne Road in South Burlington becomes overly congested, so a decision is made to widen it. After the construction, the congestion is initially relieved. This is the short-term, quick fix solution that treats the problem symptom

This is the long-term unintended consequence UC—Shelburne Rd--2 Eventually, this low traffic flow makes the road attractive to new drivers who weren’t using the road before construction, so the congestion becomes worse than ever. This is the long-term unintended consequence

Ineffective policies-1 Why Policies Don’t Give the Results You Want The system gets in the way: the harder you push, the harder the system pushes back We are drawn to the very symptom points where intervening will fail. There are a few sensitive influence points that where you can exert leverage to solve the problem, but they are not where you are expecting them to be. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space.

Ineffective policies-2 Why Policies Don’t Give You the Results You Want (continued) 5. The more that a problem comes into focus, the fuzzier it appears. 6. Past experiences may not apply. 7. Outcomes may first improve before they get worse, or first get worse before they improve. 8. The system can change in slow and imperceptible ways.

Complex systems are inherently uncontrollable Conclusions Conclusions: Complex systems are inherently uncontrollable They cannot be understood sufficiently even while they are unfolding So prediction and control of complex systems is very hard, if not impossible, to do

Benefits of Learning Systems Thinking: Benefits of ST--1 Benefits of Learning Systems Thinking: Systems Thinking will help you better understand how complex systems behave. This will help you immensely in your own personal life, in your other courses, and how you see the world. You already know everything you need to know factually…it’s just rearranging the information.

17 Practices of Systems Thinking Considering both short and long term consequences of one’s actions Looking ahead and anticipating not only the immediate results of actions, but also the effects down the road Looking at multiple perspectives of an issue Changing perspective to see other points of view within a system Looking at the ‘big picture’ Focusing on the overall ‘forest’ as opposed to the details of any one ‘tree’ Looking for patterns in data Reviewing information with an eye towards patterns or themes Looking for trends over time Viewing changes over time as part of the natural dynamics of the system Being comfortable with ambiguity Holding the tension of paradox and ambiguity; taking the time necessary to understand the dynamics of a system before taking action

17 Practices of Systems Thinking Checking results and changing actions if needed. Assessing for improvement using benchmarks; seeing errors as a means to learning and adjustment Looking for interconnected issues Perceiving connections between multiple issues/parts within a system Looking for small actions that can make big differences Using systems understanding to determine what small actions could produce high leverage results Considering the impacts of accumulations over time Paying attention to things that build up (or deplete) slowly over time—both concrete (‘money in a bank account’) or abstract (‘trust within a relationship’)  Being comfortable with questioning one’s deep assumptions Understanding that one’s beliefs of how the world works (mental models) may limit one’s thinking. Being aware of boundaries Understanding that boundaries are arbitrary; checking for consistency of understanding about where a particular boundary is drawn.

17 Practices of Systems Thinking Thinking critically about causation, not just correlation Looking beyond basic connectedness to understand the dynamic relationship between the connected parts Being cautious of adopting a win/lose attitude Being skeptical of a ‘zero-sum game’ approach to individual goals within a highly interdependent system Considering unintended consequences Anticipating ancillary effects of actions over time Seeing self as part of system under study Understanding that one’s own behavior within the system, impacts the system Recognizing that a system’s structure drives its behavior Focusing on system structure and avoiding blaming others when things go wrong

“ If you don’t know where you’re going, Benefits of ST--3 “ If you don’t know where you’re going, when you get there, it may not be where you wanna be.” Casey Stengel Former Manager NY Yankees