Population numbers and global sustainability

The aim of this workshop is to help you understand the basic facts and to make you think about them and their implications. Is population a problem? If so, should we do something about it? If we should, what should we do about it? What do you think? Key points

Population Matters is the leading population charity in the UK. Our vision is of a global population size providing a good standard of living for all, a healthy environment and environmental sustainability. Our activities are based on our charitable aims of advancing: -the education of the public in issues relating to human population worldwide and its impact on environmental sustainability; -research to determine optimum and ecologically sustainable human population levels and to publicise the results of such research; -and environmental protection by promoting policies in the United Kingdom and other parts of the world that will lead or contribute to the achievement of stable human population levels which allow environmental sustainability. We have over 3000 members from some 30 countries Introducing Population Matters

Global Footprint Network How many people can the planet support?

What changed in the last 200 years?

Food availability rose – Agricultural revolution; Green revolution Disease prevalence fell – modern medicine and public health Predation fell – Deaths from war falling Survival rates rose – falling infant mortality Made possible by exploiting fossil fuels

UK USA Mali China Ecological Footprints and Biocapacity (global hectares per person, 1961 – 2009)

We want a good quality of life for everyone, now and for future generations. We want every child to be wanted, healthy, well educated, happy and to have a rewarding life and to be able to anticipate the same for their own children. Yet, over-consumption and over-population put this future at risk. Over-consumption and over-population

16 billion 10 billion 6 billion World population – past and future (UNDESA)

DOES IT MATTER? YouGov poll in % said yes. YearPopulation million million million 2030 (Projected)73 million What about the UK? (UK ONS – Office for National Statistics)

Food availability Disease prevalence Predation Procreation level What affects animal population sizes?

Water supplies Agricultural land area and food supplies Fish stocks (freshwater and sea) Biodiversity and wild life habitats Oil, coal and gas reserves Mineral and plant resources Weather and the climate What are more people and over consumption doing to the following?

Divide into small groups to discuss ways of making consumption and population sustainable on our finite planet Consumption: how to make limited resources go further Group 1: Food and water Group 2: Energy and technology Population – how to encourage fewer births Group 3: Family and cultural considerations Group 4: Government policies Group activity

The world population is slowly stabilising, but to a level where it would be difficult to maintain a good quality of life for all With appropriate motivation, the stable number can be reduced This requires reducing the number of children being born So where are we now?

Drivers of change Population growth Industrialization of the Global South Meat based diet becomes more common Consequences of change Urbanization, ageing, migration Progressive elimination of wildlife Will there be enough food for all? So where are we now?

Increasing longevity – living longer Population momentum – youth cohort size Falling birth rate – children per woman What decides future growth?

We have identified ways in which the effects of over population and over consumption might be addressed The key question now is how these options might be implemented? How many people will be willing to reduce their consumption or have fewer children than they would like for the sake of sustainability? How could these measures be implemented?

We can: -Make greater use of existing technologies -Develop new technologies -Reduce waste -Move to greater equality of consumption But these are: -Often difficult to implement -May have a limited or temporary impact -Have uncertain and negative side-effects -Complementary, not alternatives What action can we take?

Population awareness – we’re increasing awareness of the cost to humanity and members of other species of unsustainable human numbers Family planning and women’s rights – we’re calling for women’s empowerment – particularly in education and employment – and for universal access to family planning services Environmental conservation – we’re supporting environmental conservation because it is essential for the well-being of all species – including our own. Sustainable lifestyles – we’re urging individuals to take into consideration the well-being of members of future generations when making lifestyle choices What do Population Matters advocate?

Universal user-led access to a range of family planning services Quality sex education/ support to reduce unplanned pregnancies Encouragement for individuals to make responsible decisions on family size (one or two, not more) An end to subsidies of larger families, except in proven need An end to discrimination against women and equal access for women to education, decision-making and resources Are we right or wrong? What do Population Matters advocate?

Awareness of over population and the need for contraceptives has been raised in many sub-Saharan countries through story lines on local radio soaps Awareness-raising

Political sensitivities still exist

Before the one child policy, there was a sharp reduction from more than five births per woman in the early 1970s to 2.5 in One third of population is subject to the one-child policy. Violators are fined and may lose their work bonus. The fertility rate fell from 2.63 births in 1980 to 1.61 in 2009 However, the policy itself is probably only partially responsible for the reduction in the total fertility rate. Criticisms: Was such a draconian approach required? Is it fairly applied? Were there human rights abuses? Was the preference for boys worsened? Do single children lose out? Was China right or wrong? 1. Population policies – China

Declaration that Islam favoured families with only two children". Introduced free contraceptives - pills, condoms, IUDs, implants, tubal ligations, and vasectomies, including mobile teams. Birth control classes required before a couple could get married. After the third child, withdrew food coupons, paid maternity leave, and social welfare subsidies. Population growth fell from 3% a year between 1956 and 1986 to 0.7% a year by Was Iran right or wrong? Slide Population policies – Iran

“Later Longer Fewer” TFR changes Iran China

Prince William reveals wish for two children: The Duke of Cambridge has reportedly revealed he would like to have two children with his wife. Prince William made the comment when asked how many children he would like, during the second day of the couple's Diamond Jubilee tour to Singapore. A teenager at one walkabout said the prince had responded by saying "he was thinking about having two". Source: BBC 12 September 2012 Slide 28 Good news from the top!

Further information can be found on the Population Matters Website: Thank you for watching!