Calamitous Climate Change R. Clapp EH780 March 23, 2009

Weather VS Climate Weather is the temporary, day-to-day, state of the atmosphere anywhere on the Earth’s surface Climate is the long-term, prevailing pattern of weather in any given place.

What is Global Warming? Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and re- emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere. Some solar radiation is reflected by Earth and the atmosphere. Most radiation is absorbed by the Earth’s surface and warms it. Infrared radiation is emitted by the Earth’s surface

Global Air Temperature Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, and U.S. EPA

The Warming Trend Has Already Taken Hold Oceans, which can store large amounts of heat, have warmed since Antarctic and Greenland ice shelves have been eroding. Alaskan tundra is thawing. A few examples:

“The Earth’s average temperature has gone up between 0.5 and 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 100 years.” - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“The balance of evidence suggests that there is discernible human influence on global climate.”

CO 2 Concentration, Last 1,000 Years -Derived from ice-core measurements (South Pole) and direct observation (Mauna Loa, Hawaii) Source: Based on IPCC (1994)

Correlation Between CO 2 Concentrations And Temperature

The Warming Trends The 20 th century was the warmest of the last 6 centuries was tied with 1998 (El Nino year) as the warmest year on record.

Impacts of Climate Change The IPCC predicts: Higher temperatures: 2 to 11 °F rise by Rising sea-levels: 6 to 38-inch increase by 2100, although more catastrophic increases possible. Greenland glacial erosion; albedo reduction More precipitation extremes (storms and droughts).

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health Climate affect: Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise Altered Food and crop productivity Extreme weather events Thermal extremes Worsened air pollution Effects on vectors and infective parasites Regional malnutrition and hunger Deaths, injuries and psychological disorders Altered rates of heat- and cold-related illness and death Acute and chronic respiratory disorders Infectious diseases, waterborne diseases

HURRICANE MITCH HURRICANE MITCH 1998

Source: NASA 2003 Summer Temperatures 10 o C (18 o F) >30year average SUMMER 2003 FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN, PORTUGAL deaths

Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases Source World Health Organization, 1996

Vector-Borne Encephalitis Includes St. Louis encephalitis (SLE), Eastern and Western equine encephalitis, and West Nile virus Symptoms of SLE range from headache to aseptic meningitis and death Transmission of WEE and SLE occurs above 11˚C and 15˚C, respectively. Mosquito that transmits WEE and SLE develops more rapidly at higher temperatures.

World Distribution of Dengue

MONTANE REGIONS

Atlantic Hurricane Season, 2005 Three category 5 hurricanes (Katrina, Rita, Wilma) and 23 other named storms; 12 other hurricanes

Effects of Katrina 1,300 deaths in Louisiana and Mississippi Property damage estimated at $80 billion; additional cost of relocation, emergency shelter, etc. at least an additional $80 billion –Compared to Andrew (1991) = $35 billion Overwhelmed infrastructure (water, electricity, transport, medical facilities) and response capabilities

Katrina (cont.) Lessons learned include better construction of levees (to withstand higher category storm and rainfall); Emergency response capabilities require better communication infrastructure; Personnel can act heroically, and volunteer and professional organizations’ efforts can continue for months EPA testing continues (see “Enviromapper”)

Future Prospects More extreme (category 4 and 5) Atlantic hurricanes, especially during “la nina” years More ice cap and glacier erosion and sea level rise –Inevitable, no matter what steps are taken in the short term Slowing of North Atlantic Oscillation, more European weather anomalies –“The Day After Tomorrow” in slow motion

Public Health Response Better extreme weather and hurricane track prediction Distributed emergency response capabilities Shelters and air conditioned public facilities during heat waves Training and simulation exercises Support for international relief agencies Continued effort to reduce carbon emissions