Food security and poverty alleviation under changing environmental conditions: challenges and opportunities in Sudan International symposium Khartoum Dec Theme: Food Security Policy Research Dr Ali Abdel Aziz Salih and Dr Salah Mohamed Elawad (University of Khartoum, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agric. Economics)

Introduction The Sudan economy has been affected by the recent events of food world soaring prices, instability in oil prices, and the secession of the South. Despite a high per-capita average GDP of US$1 393 and high economic growth of more than 5% over , food insecurity is wide spread in fragile areas and among vulnerable groups due to conflict, displacement, poor infrastructure, weak marketing systems and economic isolation.

SIFSIA estimated that the poor harvest and high prices of the basic staple crops mainly sorghum would result in an estimated 5.4 million people who would need varying degrees of food assistance in The food self sufficiency policy of the government on cereals are largely influenced by rainfall and suitability climate. The country is always relatively self sufficient in sorghum and millet (70 percent and above) but suffers in case of wheat (18-25 percent).

Current Situation Apart from Darfur, food insecurity in the country is widely spread in fragile areas and among vulnerable groups due to conflict, displacement, poor infrastructure, weak marketing systems and economic isolation. GNU/FAO/EU/SIFSIA (2010) estimated that the poor harvest and high prices of the basic staple crops mainly sorghum would result in an estimated 5.4 million people who would need varying degrees of food assistance in The largely affected states are formerly conflict areas of South Kordofan (31.9 percent would be food insecure), Blue Nile (14.2 percent) and Kassala (10.8 percent), and those affected by drought in North Kordofan (13.2 percent) and Red Sea (12.8 percent) (Table 7).

Food security situation by state Red Sea and Kassala Red Sea state received tons per year in 2005 and 2007 from national strategic reserves. Also some people in the state are assisted by WFP through food-for-training program. Even though crop estimates indicate that Kassala state remains a surplus producer of cereals, some people are believed to be in need of food assistance.

Sennar and Gedaref Delays in planting in Sennar left many seasonal labourers with little or no income for two to four weeks in July But Sennar and Gedaref usually have a very small proportion of food- insecure households and therefore no food assistance is provided by WFP. Nonetheless, it is recommended to provide strategic reserves to ensure food availability and enhance access by offering subsidized cereal to the most vulnerable households.

North Kordofan is traditionally a livestock and gum arabic producing area. Food aid has been provided occasionally during periods of drought; otherwise WFP supports longer-term development through programmes such as school feeding and food for work.

White Nile Of the assessed population, 79 percent are food secure, 18 percent moderately food insecure and 3 percent severely food insecure. Malnutrition continues to be a problem for a small segment of the population. South Kordofan Some 54 percent of rural households in South Kordofan are estimated to be food insecure (16.5 percent severely and 38 percent moderately). Returnee and female-headed households tend to be the worst affected. In general, sampled communities in Kadugli and surrounding areas in the central part of the state appeared to be worse off than communities in other localities.

Blue Nile It is believed that some people in Blue Nile state may need food assistance during the lean season in 2010 owing to the below average harvest. WFP will carry out a food security assessment at the beginning of 2010 to confirm the estimates as the information from this state was limited at the time of writing.

Food security in Darfur states The Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) set up in Darfur in 2009 confirms that food security at household level depends largely on income opportunities, which vary greatly according to the season. Four rounds of the FSMS have been conducted so far (in February, May, August and November 2009), covering some households in Darfur.

West Darfur has seen a dramatic deterioration in food security among IDPs and mixed communities, the majority of whom are now moderately food insecure. This does not bode well for For Darfur, it is estimated that an additional food-insecure households (compared with 2008) will require seasonal support on account of the lower than normal harvest in some pockets that are not normally supported by WFP.

The markets for the three main cereals (sorghum, millet and wheat) vary from crop to crop despite the existence of wide monitoring and more marked regulatory mechanisms for marketing sorghum and wheat than millet. Sorghum trade, in particular, is influenced by the central authorities; the crop is the country’s staple food and its exports are usually regulated by the government, especially during periods of surplus production or shortfall. Imported food aid and cross-border trade (official and non- official) with Ethiopia and Eritrea are other factors to consider.

The policies and the plans are always based on crash-programs which are not long term strategies that move from one stage to the other. The existing idle policy analyses and planning institutions and machinery are to be trusted in delivering reliable and dependable information for senior decision making. The present policies and plans are prepared and formulated based on educated observations and quick shot studies.

Food Security Cereals Supply and Demand Sorghum, wheat and millet are the main food security cereals consumed in country. Sorghum and millet consumption is concentrated in the rural areas, with intermittent surplus and deficit situations especially in Kordofan and Darfur States. The fluctuations in the production of sorghum and millet in Sudan creates a big challenge to the government to strike a balance between producers and consumers (table 1).

The low budget allocated for the Strategic Grain reserve does not permit the government to meet that challenge. Low prices in 2010 led to the stock of more than 4 million sacks of sorghum (40000 tons) unsold in Gadarif Crops Market, and non-harvest of 40% of the produced crop in the farms. Heavy taxes do not encourage traders to sell crop in other needy States.

Millet is the main staple crop complementing sorghum in the Western States of Sudan (Kordofan and Darfur). Annual average area under millet is about 6.28 million feddans producing about tons. During 2010 millet production increased to tons despite area drop; and is expected to increase to tons by 2011.

The urbanization process taking place in Sudan induced a dramatic shift in consumer preference from sorghum towards wheat consumption in the country at large. Most of the demand is concentrated in the urban areas, where wheat has largely replaced sorghum. A growing wheat gap is taking place since the turn of the 1990, which resulted in increased imports of wheat to the tune of tons. The average annual production of wheat of metric tons is only able to cover about 30% of total demand. Table 6 shows production, consumption and self sufficiency of major staple crops of Sudan during

Table (1): Sudan Cereal Balance 2009/2010 in 000 tons (excluding the South) ItemTotal cerealSorghum (+miaze)MilletWheatRice availability Opening stocks Production Utilization Food Feed Seeds Post harvest losses Exports Closing stocks Commercial imports Self sufficiency Source: Government of National Unity of Sudan/FAO/EU: Crop Production and Food Security Assessment for the Northern State of the Sudan, 7 February, 2010.

Table (2): Cereal Production, Consumption and Sufficiency Ratio in Sudan for the period Year Production (000 ton) Consumption (000 ton) Self sufficiency % Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2009,

Table (3): Food Insecurity Rates by State excluding Darfur States (2010) StateFood insecurity rate (%) Northern1.0 River Nile2.6 Red Sea12.8 Kassala10.8 Gadaref9.2 Khartoum4.2 Gezira1.5 Sinnar5.8 Blue Nile14.2 White Nile9.8 North Kordofan13.2 South Kordofan31.9 Source: Government of National Unity of Sudan/FAO/EU: Crop Production and Food Security Assessment for the Northern State of the Sudan, 7 February, 2010.

Challenges Policy and Planning Weak interacting networks of formulation and implementation of agriculture, livestock, fisheries and natural resources policies and strategies at federal, state and locality levels and between agricultural and industry production and marketing machinery and institutions. Despite the well articulated rural development and gender policies in Sudan by PRSP I and II and UNDAF their implementation has not been taken seriously. Outdated agricultural, livestock, forestry, natural pastures and water resources census and statistics that constrain policy design and planning of strategies. Add to this the limited benefits out of FAO and FAO/EU/SIFSIA produced statistics on crop production and marketing in policy design and decision making.

Institutional Capacity in Research, Supporting Services and Management *Weak institutional capacity in establishing and implementing laws and regulations in agriculture, rural development and land tenure systems. *The conflicts over land ownership and use due to absence of executive government machinery to apply land laws and land tenure ship, create obstacles against the promotion of investment especially private sector investments in agriculture in Sudan. *Weak institutional and human resources capacity in research, policy and planning, agricultural services and management of key agricultural ministries and affiliated corporations being under staffed, under equipped and under financed. The agricultural planning, research, technology transfer and supply of agricultural services are still conducted in the old routine regime of the 1960s and 1970s.

The poor rural physical infrastructure, rudimentary markets, high taxation, scarce finance and poor use of productivity-enhancing technologies which remain as crucial general poverty-correlates. The absence of an effective marketing buffer system that hedge against low price sales of crops by small producers at harvest reduce their income and food security situation. Weak veterinary services Weak access of small producers to inputs especially seeds and fertilizers, extension services, credit and marketing facilities. The poor budget allocations and the poor official development assistance flows to agriculture deprive the fragile areas from receiving adequate agricultural services and inputs.

Climate Change Risks The emerging issues of climate change, particularly with respect to rainfall variability and movement of rainfall isohyets challenge production systems in crops, livestock, and forestry. Dependence on rainfall subjects the agricultural sector to risks of climate change and instability of rainfall short seasons. The Role of the Private Sector The absence of effective contribution of the private sector in leading agricultural development and employment of agricultural college graduates who are expected to create a technological change in crop and animal production systems in the country.

Opportunities The geophysical position of Sudan in Africa and proximity to the Middle East enhances the expected role of the country in meeting food consumption needs in the Arab countries. The proximity of the country to Arab world and Europe facilitates easy access to export meekest. The present commitment of the government towards the revival of agriculture in diversifying economic resources. Sudan is a rich country in natural resources endowments (water resources, fertile agricultural lands-soils, animal wealth, minerals and tourist sites). The River Nile and tributaries of the White Nile and the Blue Nile together with groundwater reserves constitute the major potential sources for sustained water supply. The country has an area 175 million feddans of potential arable land and an estimated million heads of cattle, sheep, goats and camels. Sudan is characterized by climates that make the country capable of producing different cereals, oilseeds and horticultural crops. New enthusiastic administrative and management leadership, existence of reputable agricultural research, skilled human resources and existence of some able community based organizations

Approach SWOT ANALYSES: Strengths: Natural resources endowments, Variety of soils and water resources Skilled human resources. Existence of some able community based organizations Existence of agricultural research station, Rehabilitated range and pastures during long civil conflict period, Existence of UN organizations and national and foreign non- governmental organizations (NGOs), Weaknesses: Food insecurity (food gaps occurring at several instances), Poor organization between the State Ministry of Agriculture and FAO and Partners and beneficiaries with respect to crop production and food security support (poor supply of seeds and extension services and tools, mini-food storage facilities),

Weak administrative system (poor budgets for meting operational cost), Non-promotional land tenure system, Traditional practices and tools, Crop-pastorals conflicts, Poor conservation of the natural resources (weak budgets for opening rang and pastures fire-lines, stock-routes, and distribution of fodder seeds), Weak extension services in area of crop production, range and pastures management, forests rehabilitation and re-forestation, and livestock production and health services, and marketing extension for all related activities), Low productivity and production (inadequate seed supply), Poor pest control by Central government due to delays in signing contracts with aerial spraying companies. Poor access to required adequate inputs on time, Poor access to adequate credit on time, Poor producers marketing capacities, Limited agro-processing facilities.

Opportunities: New enthusiastic administrative and management leadership, Tapping idle lands and water resources (wadies and ground and underground water), Production of improved seeds by crop producers and farming community, Development of grain reserve system, Development of hay reserve system, Development of vegetables enterprises, Introduction of microfinance project into the State. Threats: Insecurity, Poor management of agriculture and related institutions, Poor Private sector ready to lad production and research, Dependency syndrome, Drought and climate change, Poor government development and operational budget support, Delays in land tenure reforms, Poor control of the high local pest infestation, Lack of incentives and low salaries to government employees, Contrast between government long term development objectives and donors (UN organization and national and foreign NGOs) short term emergency and enabling capacity objectives.

Methods that used to analyze food insecurity indicators include: average energy requirement degree and depth of food deprivation dietary energy unit cost dietary energy consumption dietary energy requirement dietary energy supply food balance sheet food consumption distribution food deprivation gini coefficient household food consumption expenditure

Way Forward for Cooperation Regarding food security policy we suggest a holistic approach that includes production, storage, consumption and food aid. The short and long term impacts exploring and assessing current micro and macro policies role and effects on food security are to be incorporated. Specifically the following issues are to be considered: 1. institutions dealing with food security dimension( availability, accessibility, stability and nutritional aspects) 2. Analysis and formulation of policies, strategies and plans cohesiveness with national objectives and inline with regional and international evolving requirements.

3. The role of agricultural. sector in achieving food self- sufficiency,increasing employment opportunities and reducing poverty in rural and urban areas 4. Production policies raising efficient resource utilization at agricultural programs and farm levels. 5. Research and development innovations and transfer of technology in enhancing food security situation for domestic and export market 6. Current and potential storage facilities and functions in stabilizing markets and prices motivating food production and ensuring food access to consumers. 7. Analysis of organizational set-up and capacity building of institutions involved in food security policies, planning, legislation, finance and implementation. 8. policies on food production and consumption risks and risk management ( early warning measures, insurance and risk mitigation fund)